SQM Research director Louis Christopher predicts housing growth for Brisbane in 2026
Queensland’s property market is poised for another year of supercharged growth, with Brisbane and regional hubs including the Gold and Sunshine Coasts tipped to record double-digit price jumps in 2026.
SQM Research’s annual Housing Boom and Bust Report forecast Brisbane dwelling values would surge by 10 to 15 per cent under a base case scenario, placing the city among four tipped to outperform the big southern capitals.
Prices on the Sunshine Coast were expected to climb by the same amount, followed by Mackay/Airlie Beach, up 7 to 12 per cent, and the Gold Coast, 7 to 11 per cent.
Brisbane’s diverse economic drivers were expected to propel further growth
The outlook put Queensland’s key markets well above the national average rise of 6 to 10 per cent across all capital cities, with Perth and Darwin expected to outperform (+12-16 per cent), along with Adelaide (+10-14 per cent).
By contrast, prices in Sydney would rise by 3 to 6 per cent, and 4 to 7 per cent in Melbourne.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said this year’s interest rate cuts coupled with ongoing government support for first homeowners would encourage buyers into the housing market, ensuring sustained price growth across the state.
He noted Brisbane’s diverse economic drivers as a hub for mining support, energy and export activities, while also benefitting from a thriving tourism sector and delivering major infrastructure projects ahead of the 2032 Olympics.
SQM Research director Louis Christopher
The state’s rental market in particular was feeling the pinch from population growth and constrained housing supply, with the capital city alone expected to receive 40,000 to 50,000 new residents.
Rental vacancy rates had tightened since 2024 to below 1 pe rcent, while listings for properties for sale had dropped by 12 to 17 per cent year-on-year.
“Consequently, the Brisbane housing market in increasingly in a state of undersupply, shifting towards a stronger seller’s edge as buyer demand persists,” Mr Christopher said.
The report’s bullish outlook for the city was “driven by this supply squeeze, though moderated by affordability challenges and potential rate cuts”.
Buyer confidence has picked up following a raft of interest rate cuts and the rollout of expanded government incentives.
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The research assumed moderate national population growth of about 390,000 people, translating to demand for about 150,000 new dwellings.
While dwelling completions were expected to rise to 180,000, creating a small surplus, underlying demand remained strong.
Interest rates were forecast to remain steady until mid-2026, with likely one or two 0.25 per cent rate cuts thereafter.
Despite a projected slowdown in employment growth and a rise in unemployment to 5 per cent, momentum from the second half of 2025 was expected to carry through.
Rental vacancy rates also remained razor-thin
The report returned two more modest, and one even more optimistic, outlooks under its alternative scenarios, dubbed, “sticky inflation”, “slowdown spillover”, and economic rebound”.
“As we look to 2026, the outlook is shaped by a range of potential economic paths…Our scenarios highlight the market’s sensitivity to these factors, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide poised for double-digit growth in all cases due to their supply constraints and economic momentum,” Mr Christopher said.
The state’s major hubs would still record positive growth of up to 12 per cent in Brisbane even under less favourable conditions, such as delayed rate relief or a rise in unemployment, the report found.
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