Kane Dury, principal of Discover Buyers Agency, says regional cities are outperforming the capitals on almost every measure.
A leading property expert says the wave of gloomy headlines about Australia’s softening property market is masking one of the strongest regional growth runs in years.
Kane Dury, principal of Discover Buyers Agency, said the national numbers driving the ‘downturn’ narrative were really a “Sydney and Melbourne story”, with plenty of regional centres quietly strengthening.
“Buyers are being told the market has turned, and they’re sitting on their hands,” Mr Dury said.
Aerial view of Wagga Wagga.
Aerial view of Townsville.
“But that’s not what the data actually says about locations beyond the capitals.
“Overall values fell in June because Sydney and Melbourne prices softened.
“Strip out the biggest cities, however, and you’ll find regional Australia not just holding up, it’s outperforming the capitals on almost every measure.”
The PropTrack home price index for June showed nationally, the capital cities were down 0.4 per cent, with Sydney leading, (-0.5 per cent), followed by Melbourne (-0.4 per cent) and Brisbane (-0.2 per cent).
The data showed regional areas across the country recorded no change, while regional NSW was up 0.1 per cent. Melbourne showed no change while regional Queensland recorded a 0.1 per cent drop.
REA Group senior economist Anne Flaherty.
Aerial view of Toowoomba looking towards the CBD.
“The strongest performing parts of the market continue to be those offering the greatest
affordability,” said REA Group senior economist Anne Flaherty.
“Regional markets outperformed capitals over both the month and the year.”
Mr Dury said the data showed a “complete reversal of the old assumption that the regions lag the cities”.
“Right now, it’s the capitals lagging the regions,” Mr Dury said.
“When people hear ‘the Australian market fell last month’, what they’re really hearing is that Sydney and Melbourne fell.
“Those two cities alone carry so much weight in the national figures that they can drag the headline number down even while dozens of other markets are doing well.
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Aerial view of Mackay. Picture: Heidi Petith
8/88 Mitchell Street, North Ward in Townsville is for sale at offers over $2.55m.
“There is no such thing as ‘the Australian property market’.
“There are hundreds of markets, and right now many are moving in opposite directions.”
Mr Dury picked the regional cities he believed offered the strongest combination of value, rental demand and economic diversity for buyers in the $700,000 to $1 million bracket, with one golden rule being to buy established homes, not house-and-land packages.
Aerial view of Townsville.
99/58 Euro Blvd, Kirwan is for sale at offers over $599,000.
In Queensland, he picked Toowoomba, Townsville and Mackay.
“Toowoomba is the standout inland performer, with double-digit annual growth, an economy spanning health, education, agribusiness and the Wellcamp airport and logistics precinct, and established homes on big blocks still available under $800,000,” he said.
“Townsville has been one of the fastest-growing markets in the country over the past year,
underpinned by defence, the port, health, education and major energy projects. Its median house price is still around the mid-$700,000s, delivering extraordinary value for northern Australia’s capital.”
Discover Buyers Agency principal Kane Dury.
Aerial view of Mackay. Picture: Heidi Petith
“Mackay has matured well beyond a resources town, with health, marine, agriculture and services jobs supporting a market where vacancy rates are razor thin and established housing remains firmly in the sweet-spot price band.”
For Victoria, his top picks were Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat.
“While Melbourne corrects, Geelong offers a diversified economy across health, education,
advanced manufacturing and the port, plus genuine lifestyle appeal,” he said.
“Quality established homes remain accessible around the $700,000 to $900,000 mark – something Melbourne buyers can only dream about within 10 kilometres of their CBD.”
Aerial view of Ballarat.
For Bendigo and Ballarat, he said both cities had hospitals, universities, government employment and strong commuter links, with established period homes still available in the $600,000s and $700,000s.
“As Melbourne softens, value hunters are already looking up the highway,” he said.
His only pick in NSW was Wagga Wagga.
“Wagga is the classic multi-engine regional city with defence, health, education, agriculture, and transport all driving the local economy,” he said.
“It also has a tight rental market driving rents and prices higher.
Aerial view of Bendigo.
Mr Dury said local-level indicators that revealed opportunity included vacancy rates, days on market, the ratio of owner-occupiers to renters, listing volumes, local population growth and the diversity of the employment base, none of which appear in the headline index.
“A suburb with a vacancy rate under one per cent, homes selling in a fortnight and seven in ten homes owned by the people living in them tells you far more than any national number ever will,” he said.
Kane Dury says higher interest rates and the new investor tax settings have knocked confidence in the big cities, but they haven’t changed the fundamentals in the regions
Mr Dury says the regional surge is being driven by structural forces, not sentiment — severe rental shortages with regional vacancy rates around 1.5 per cent, affordability refugees priced out of the capitals, sustained internal migration, and chronically constrained new housing supply.
“Higher interest rates and the new investor tax settings have knocked confidence in the big cities, but they haven’t changed the fundamentals in the regions with too many people chasing too few homes,” he said.
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