Soaring living costs have fuelled a mass exodus from the inner suburbs of major capitals as cash strapped renters and home buyers seek out more affordable regional or outer city locations.
Inner Brisbane and the Sydney’s CBD and inner south were top of the list of areas with a net loss of people over the past year, according to exclusive figures from relocations platform Muval.
Inner Perth also had a net loss of domestic residents, meaning more residents left than new residents moved in, along with Darwin, Townsville and Cairns.
The Muval data – an early, pre-census indicator of population trends developed in collaboration with the University of Queensland – showed the most expensive cities were losing local people fastest.
Sydney’s apartment dominated inner south is losing people.
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Sydney and Brisbane, now the country’s two most expensive major capitals, had the lion’s share of the regions people were leaving, according to the research, which excluded overseas migration flow.
Melbourne, now on par with Adelaide as the most affordable major capital, accounted for the bulk of the areas that had the highest population gains.
Muval indicated Melbourne’s growth was spurred by higher than normal inter-state migration and inflows from regional Victoria.
The index did not track overseas arrival numbers, but separate sources have indicated Melbourne has remained the most popular landing pad for new overseas arrivals since borders were reopened in 2022.
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Inner Brisbane had the biggest net loss of domestic residents.
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Brisbane, once a magnet from families seeking a refuge from runaway housing costs in Sydney and Melbourne, accounted for four of the top 10 regions losing the most long-term residents.
Sydney – long the country’s most expensive housing market by some margin – accounted for another two of the top 20 areas with a net population loss.
Perth, which has had the fastest growing housing prices over the past two years, was home to four of the top 20 areas losing residents.
University of Queensland population geographer Dr Elin Charles-Edwards said the data gave some fresh insight into the impact of soaring living costs on local economies.
“Apart from in Melbourne, a lot of inner city areas are losing domestic residents because the housing is more expensive,” Ms Charles-Edwards said.
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Inner suburbs typically have substantially higher housing costs.
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“Inner areas are also more popular with overseas migrants so the competition for housing can be a lot higher and that may be pushing many (locals) further out.”
The high outflow of residents, coupled with a record inflow of overseas migrants, especially in the case of Sydney, suggested the character of these areas could change, Ms Charles-Edwards said.
“A studentfication can happen. The population gets younger. Housing needs change. There may be a decline in local area fertility.”
Ms Charles-Edwards said this pattern was reasonably established in Sydney but hadn’t been as strong in Brisbane previously.
“Foreign migration is often into the inner city. It’s been a common dynamic in Sydney. It’s usually been the attractor (of overseas migrants) and distributor (of domestic migrants) to the rest of the country.
UQ population geographer Dr Elin Charles-Edwards.
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“But the same thing is happening in Brisbane. It used to be the fourth most expensive city. One of the big drivers to Brisbane had been the price differential. It was cheaper.
“Now it’s Melbourne that’s one of the more affordable cities, so it’s reversed. We are seeing a big return to Melbourne, while Brisbane is distributing population to other parts of southeast Queensland.”
Muval CEO James Morrell said a combination of rising rents and home prices, along with shifting lifestyle choices, were driving a shift away from many inner city areas.
“Particularly over the last few years, people are evaluating whether they should pay that much in the city when they can live by the beach. We see people re-evaluate their lifestyle choices,” Mr Morrell said.
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Inner Perth is also losing residents.
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Muval did not publish numbers showing the degree of population outflow from each area, but Mr Morrell said inner areas tended to have higher figures.
“We’re seeing a lot of the younger demographer move to areas that are within commutable distance of a major city,” he said.
“Often it’s a long commute you wouldn’t want to do every day, but it’s tolerable if you’re only in the office a few days a week.
“But it’s not just moving to regional areas for the sake of it. It’s not just about housing costs. It’s a balance of lifestyle and cost pressures.”
REGIONS WITH NET LOSS OF POPULATION
| Region (SA4) | State | |
| 1 | Brisbane Inner City | QLD |
| 2 | Sydney – City and Inner South | NSW |
| 3 | Darwin | NT |
| 4 | Perth – Inner | WA |
| 5 | Brisbane – South | QLD |
| 6 | Moreton Bay – South | QLD |
| 7 | Brisbane – North | QLD |
| 8 | Perth – North East | WA |
| 9 | Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday | QLD |
| 10 | Townsville | QLD |
| 11 | Western Australia – Outback (North) | WA |
| 12 | Brisbane – West | QLD |
| 13 | Cairns | QLD |
| 14 | Perth – South East | WA |
| 15 | Western Australia – Outback (South) | WA |
| 16 | Northern Territory – Outback | NT |
| 17 | Sydney – Ryde | NSW |
| 18 | Perth – South West | WA |
| 19 | Central Queensland | QLD |
| 20 | Ipswich | QLD |
Source: Muval
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