Mortgage Rates Edge Down on Cue as the Best Week To Sell Approaches

The situation in the Middle East continues to dominate headlines, but a ceasefire has already affected mortgage rates.

We have two different indicators to consider: first, the most recently released consumer price index, which tracks inflation. Importantly, it covers the month of March and does not reflect any post-ceasefire data.

Not surprisingly, the data showed an increase in overall prices largely driven by rising energy costs, but even core inflation picked up, underscoring the strain consumer budgets have endured. 

Second, after five weeks of increases, mortgage rates dropped 9 basis points—a housing-friendly move and quick reaction to the ceasefire. The average 30-year fixed home loan rate stands at 6.37%. To see mortgage rates drop further, markets need to see more progress toward a longer-term resolution of the conflict that keeps the Strait of Hormuz open. 

Weekly housing data showed fewer new sellers in the past week, as earlier spring holidays saw higher mortgage rates cut into activity. I expect some rebound next week, so it will take a few weeks to see the underlying trend.

Active listings growth continued, but at a slower pace, and the typical asking price continues to hover roughly 2% below where it was this time last year. 

We’re approaching the seasonal best time to sell, with homeowners in Pittsburgh seeing peak conditions right now—and 12 major metros seeing those conditions next week.

• Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

• Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

• Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

• Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

• Cleveland, OH

• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

• Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

• Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

• Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN

• Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

• Raleigh-Cary, NC

• Richmond, VA

Homeowners contemplating a sale in the hottest housing markets may not need to focus on lining up with seasonal trends. Data shows that homes continue to sell quickly, and buyer demand is strong in the Northeast and Midwest, where many of the country’s hottest housing markets are found. 

In addition to tracking monthly trends, the March Luxury Report dug into "pure luxury" markets, where million-dollar listings are the majority. The data shows that coastlines, mountains, and resort areas are home to some of the country’s priciest enclaves.

Finally, we launched a new tool this week to make it easier for buyers and sellers to understand the housing market and for professionals to help communicate the vast amount of information available on the housing market, all in one simple indicator. It’s called the Realtor.com® Market Clock. 

Right now, the U.S. Market Clock reads 3 o’clock, indicating that the market is balanced but moving in a buyer-friendly direction. Across the 50 largest markets, however, we see just about every hour on the clock represented, reflecting just how fragmented the U.S. housing market is right now. Put simply, your local market may or may not be a match for national housing trends, and the Market Clock will help you assess that at a glance.