Burglary offences have more than doubled in some Melbourne suburbs within a 12-month period, according to crime statistics.
Melbourne homebuyers are driving price booms in rising burglary hotspots with surprising stats revealing crime isn’t always a deterrent to property premiums.
While Victoria Police data shows the Mornington Peninsula and new housing hubs have experienced the city’s most significant rise in burglaries across a 12-month period, separate PropTrack data reveals median house prices have increased in all but one of the suburbs – and 11 have outperformed the wider city.
RELATED: Melbourne’s west tipped to lead home price boom as crime stats bite
How home insurance costs are surging across Melbourne suburbs — see the list
Where Melbourne landlords are making the more insurance claims, and choosing to sell up
But experts have warned while some home buyers don’t pay much attention to crime levels, many others avoid suburbs they perceive as unsafe.
Installing home security measures and insurance premiums can also add thousands of dollars to a purchasers’ costs.
Analysis of Victoria’s Crime Statistics Agency figures by Titan Shutters highlights that both residential and commercial burglary offences have more than doubled in areas including Blairgowrie and Safety Beach on the Peninsula, Aintree and Deanside to the city’s west and Hadfield in the northern suburbs.
Notably, the sharp uptick came from a fairly low base for some suburbs such as Blairgowrie.
The coastal hamlet recorded 40 burglaries in the year to September 30, 2025, compared to 13 burglaries in the previous 12 months.
Crime statistics analysis shows that 49 Melbourne suburbs recorded a 30 per cent or more increase in burglaries in 12 months to September 30, 2025.
Melbourne-based Advantage Property Consulting director and buyers’ advocate Frank Valentic said a lot of purchasers were not put off by rising burglary rates, especially if the number of overall burglaries was not that notable.
“Often it’s a stepping stone for a young first-home buyer to get into the market and then move to a better lifestyle and more affluent suburb,” Mr Valentic said.
In the year to January, 11 of Melbourne’s top 15 burglary hotspots posted median house price rises which surpassed Greater Melbourne’s average 3.8 per cent median house price growth for the period.
Advantage Property Consulting director and buyers’ advocate Frank Valentic says that all suburbs have their respective good and bad areas when it comes to crime levels.
Nonetheless, Mr Valentic said he had also met plenty of buyers who looked at crime rates, especially women.
“They consider whether crime rates are going up or down in an area and will often contact police or the local Neighbourhood Watch to get a feel for how safe or unsafe the area is,” he said.
Mr Valentic advised that rising crime could lead to higher insurance premiums, plus home security costs.
Security cameras can cost anywhere from $50 to $1475 while financial comparison website Canstar puts the cost of roller security shutters at $300 to $1000. Another financial comparison website, Finder, last year found the average Victorian home insurance premium had jumped from $425 to $2442 in 12 months with some higher-crime areas lodging even pricier premiums.
Property buyers in suburbs with a higher crime rate often purchase a home with plans to install security measures.
Titan Shutters director David Spottiswood that 61 per cent of the 48,386 Victorian burglaries reported to police had targeted residential buildings in the year to September 30, 2025.
“From the data we can speculate homes are seen as easier targets for burglars, this could be due to them not having the same level of security as shops or businesses,” Mr Spottiswood said.
“Our advice to residents is to make it as difficult as possible for burglars to break into your property to deter them from trying to enter at all.”
Real estate agency PRD’s chief economist Dr Diaswati (Asti) Mardiasmo said that with rising interest rates, a house’s price, build quality and nearby amenities like schools and public transport often outweighed concerns about burglary rates.
“The house itself and the location is more important than the crime,” Dr Mardiasmo said.
PRD Real Estate chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo says that population booms and unemployment levels can have an impact on a suburb’s crime levels.
Melbourne buyers wanting to secure a house rather than a townhouse or unit would sometimes opt for an affordable area with higher crime but plan to install security measures, she added.
Her research has indicated factors such as a rapidly-growing population and high unemployment could influence a suburb’s crime rate.
On the plus side, Dr Diaswati said that a new infrastructure or a commercial project which created a lot of jobs can help to reduce an area’s crime levels.
She said it was important for people not to become too alarmed by crime statistics because a suburb’s individual circumstances such as a population boom or factory closure which caused a surge in unemployment could sometimes contribute to fluctuations in offences such as burglaries.
For many buyers on a budget, a home’s price and surrounding amenities can outweigh concerns about crime.
Belle Property Blairgowrie director Tim Bradler said although instances of young people mucking around and vandalism spiked when a massive influx of tourists arrived in the region across high summer, this usually did not involve burglaries.
“We have had holiday homes sit vacant for ages without a hassle although they usually have good security measures,” he said.
“The area is considered very safe and neighbours who keep an eye on things, it definitely has a sense of community.”
Home security measures can include window and door locks, security cameras, alarms, lighting, remote monitoring, roller shutters and sensors.
Further crime statistics analysis by Titan Shutters shows 10 Melbourne suburbs racked up more than 400 burglaries each in 2025.
The CBD led with 1319 offences followed by Preston, Dandenong, Reservoir and Frankston rounding out the top five.
While there’s not many houses in Melbourne’s CBD, median house prices in the four other suburbs have all risen by as much as 13 per cent since January 2025.
The Titan Shutters analysis of Victorian crime data shows that out of the 48,386 burglaries recorded across the state in 12 months, 17.3 per cent were aggravated burglary cases – which can mean the offender carried a weapon or knew that a person was on the premises.
MELBOURNE’S RISING BURGLARY HOTSPOTS
Suburb |
Burglary offences |
Increase in past year |
Median house price |
Annual median price growth |
| Blairgowrie | 40 | 208% | $1.495m | 5.3% |
| Hadfield | 42 | 163% | $891,000 | 5.1% |
| Aintree | 80 | 142% | $718,500 | 4.1% |
| Deanside | 53 | 130% | $705,000 | 12.8% |
| Safety Beach | 48 | 129% | $1.155m | 0.6% |
| Lyndhurst | 63 | 110% | $983,000 | 9.1% |
| St Kilda West | 35 | 94% | $2.55m | 33.5% |
| Beaconsfield | 68 | 94% | $1m | 5.1% |
| Tarneit | 414 | 90% | $669,000 | 2.5% |
| Noble Park North | 68 | 89% | $805,000 | 4% |
| Sorrento | 37 | 85% | $1.8m | -0.5% |
| Brookfield | 44 | 83% | $606,551 | 9.5% |
| Kingsbury | 33 | 74% | $858,000 | 6.9% |
| Mill Park | 125 | 74% | $841,000 | 7.8% |
| Mont Albert | 65 | 71% | $2.425m | 0.2% |
Burglary offences are for the year to September 30, 2025. Median house price increases are for the year to January, 2026. Source: Titan Shutters, Victorian Crime Statistics Agency, PropTrack.
Anyone with information about unsolved burglaries or break-ins is urged to anonymously contact Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Brendan Beckett.
ADVICE FOR BUYERS CONSIDERING A SUBURB WITH RISING CRIME:
+ Factor in higher insurance premiums and be aware some insurance companies will even reject cover for some areas;
+ More break-ins and more insurance claims can cause more stress for the family;
+ Higher security costs such as CCTV cameras and push-button safety devices add to household spending;
+ Consider renting in an area to see what it is like before buying;
Living in an area with rising crime rates can sometimes mean higher insurance premoums for home owners.
+ Try the “coffee test”. Sit in a local shopping strip, plaza or centre for a few hours and people watch to get a good feel of the area and its demographics;
+ If you are looking at buying a particular house, walk up and down the street and chat to the neighbours about the area, its crime rate and how safe it is;
+ Remember most suburbs have streets and individual areas with low crime, while other streets and neighbourhoods in the same suburb can have higher incidences.
Source: Advantage Property Consulting director and buyers’ advocate Frank Valentic.
Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox.
MORE: HIA: government failures puts 1.2 million home target at risk
Uber Eats link to $1500 a month spend cutting Aussie home loans
Victoria: Tenant owes landlord $100k in legal fees, unpaid rent
English (US) · 