Melbourne families are being forced backwards down the property ladder, with new data revealing the suburbs where homeowners are selling up but still struggling to buy bigger. Picture: Jake Nowakowski
Melbourne families are being forced backwards down the property ladder in former first-home buyer hot spots as surging home loan costs freeze their aspirations for a bigger house.
Sunbury, Reservoir and Werribee are among the hardest Melbourne suburbs to trade up in, with more residents shifting to lower-value homes than higher-value ones.
A new Find a Mover report shows Sunbury recorded the weakest result among Melbourne’s top 20 moving suburbs, with a -$45,000 price gap, followed by Reservoir at -$28,000 and Werribee at -$18,000.
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But Southbank, Berwick, Docklands and Point Cook have emerged as the city’s strongest upgrader suburbs, with positive price gaps from $65,000 to $97,000 as movers found higher-value homes, bigger family layouts or more desirable locations.
Overall, Melbourne recorded more upward than downward moves, with 51 per cent of movers shifting to higher-value homes and 46 per cent moving lower.
Find a Mover founder and director Howe Tran said the figures showed a clear split between capital city markets where residents were still moving up and those under more pressure.
“What we’re seeing across the five capitals is a clear split,” Mr Tran said.
9 Manorwood Way, Berwick, has a $1.1m-$1.2m price guide in one of Melbourne’s strongest upgrader suburbs, where families are chasing space, land and value.
Find a Mover founder Howe Tran says Melbourne has stayed “rock solid” on the property ladder, despite families in some suburbs being forced to spend less.
“Melbourne has been rock solid on the property ladder, positive every single quarter for three years. No other capital has managed that.
“Sydney and Adelaide are feeling the most pressure. Both have had multiple negative quarters and the data shows people in those markets are finding it harder to move up.
“The big picture is simple. In Melbourne and Brisbane, people are choosing to spend more. In Sydney and Adelaide, more people are being forced to spend less.”
He added that Melbourne’s upgrade opportunities had not disappeared, but were increasingly concentrated in different types of suburbs such as Southbank and Berwick.
Sunbury, Reservoir and Werribee have emerged as some of Melbourne’s toughest suburbs for families trying to trade up into a bigger home.
“And there’s clearly strong interstate interest in Melbourne, especially from Sydney and Brisbane, which tells you something about how people see Melbourne’s value compared to those markets,” he said.
Alba Prop director Tom Mifsud said the figures reflected a practical problem for families trying to upgrade: whether they could find the right house, not just the right suburb.
“The issue with some suburbs is not always the suburb itself. It is the housing stock,” Mr Mifsud said.
“You look at somewhere like Reservoir or Werribee and I can understand why they may be seen as harder for some upgraders.
“It is not necessarily because they are bad suburbs. It is because a lot of the homes may not have that fourth bedroom or the layout a family upgrader is looking for.
Melbourne’s property ladder is still moving, but the next step is becoming harder in former first-home buyer hot spots. Picture: Jake Nowakowski
Families chasing a fourth bedroom, second living area, backyard and garage are being pushed into tough choices across Melbourne in areas like Resevoir Picture: NCA NewsWire / Aaron Francis
“That fourth bedroom is a big deal. It might sound simple, but for a family it can be the difference between ‘this works’ and ‘this does not work’.”
Mr Mifsud said many upgraders were chasing the extra bedroom, second living area, backyard, garage and study that would make a home work for the next 10 years.
“A suburb can be cheaper, but if the houses do not solve the buyer’s problem, it will not necessarily attract the upgrader,” he said.
Southbank, Berwick, Docklands and Point Cook are among the suburbs where movers are still finding stronger upgrader opportunities. Picture: David Crosling
Alba director Tom Mifsud says the fourth bedroom has become a dealbreaker for many families trying to make their next move.
“On the other hand, a suburb can be further out, but if it gives them the fourth bedroom, the land, the schools, the family lifestyle and a manageable mortgage, then it becomes a serious option.”
Buyer’s advocate Madeleine Roberts said Berwick’s result was unsurprising given its appeal to families seeking land, greenery and value for money.
“I speak to a lot of people who are considering buying in Berwick, so I’m not surprised by that,” Ms Roberts said.
Buyer’s advocate Madeleine Roberts says Berwick’s appeal comes down to bang for buck, land size, greenery and family lifestyle value.
The MR Advocacy director said suburbs where movers were shifting lower should not be written off, but the trend could suggest some homeowners were unable to afford the next step up in the same area.
“They’re selling, but they’re not able to keep up and upsize in the same market, so they probably need to consider other suburbs,” she said.
“They’re getting priced out at that point.”
Melbourne hardest suburbs to upgrade
Sunbury: -$45,000 price gap
Reservoir: -$28,000 price gap
Werribee: -$18,000 price gap
Brunswick: +$2000 price gap
Tarneit: +$2000 price gap
Melbourne strongest upgrader suburbs
Southbank: +$97,000 price gap
Berwick: +$84,000 price gap
Point Cook: +$72,000 price gap
Docklands: +$65,000 price gap
Craigieburn: +$46,000 price gap
Find a Mover compared residential moves from May 2023 to May 2026 property type and bedroom count to estimate whether people moved to higher or lower-value homes. Figures only include moves where values could be estimated at both the origin and destination.
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