Welcome to our live coverage of today's RBA interest rate decision. The cash rate announcement will be handed down at 2:30pm, with the RBA widely expected to hold rates steady. Stay tuned for predictions and reactions from economists and updates live from the press conference following the announcement.
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RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Picture: Getty
Consumer confidence low as RBA prepares to reveal interest rates decision
12:46 pm
This afternoon’s cash rate decision comes off the back of a major few weeks for households. The latest rate hike on 5 May was quickly followed by several major tax shake ups for property announced in the 2026 Federal Budget, including a revamp for negative gearing and changes to capital gains tax.
The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index shows price declines across the housing market and continuing hot inflation have since pushed public confidence down to one of the lowest levels on record.
The index fell 2.9% to 80.6 in June, down from 83 in May, with a reading of less than 100 indicating pessimists outnumber optimists among those surveyed.
Consumers will be looking to RBA governor Michele Bullock to provide a definitive outlook for the economy this afternoon, with the bank also keen to see consumers believe that low and stable inflation can be the norm for Australia.
Read more: Perfect storm: Budget tax changes, interest rates rattle market confidence
Economist prediction: No interest rate hike from the RBA
12:32 pm
The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board is likely to hold the cash rate this afternoon, REA Group executive manager of economics Angus Moore says.
“We're very unlikely to see a rate hike, even before oil prices moved lower yesterday,” he said. “While inflation is still too high, the RBA is likely to want to wait and see how the three hikes they've already put through are flowing through. And that's particularly true given there are signs household spending is slowing and the housing market has also cleared slowed too.”
Mr Moore added that final negotiations between the United States and Iran later this week could also deter lingering chances for a fourth rate hike.
“The announced peace deal, and the consequent fall in global oil prices, are also going to take some pressure off headline inflation, which will also give the RBA a little more comfort in holding this month.”
Read more: The cities where house prices rose six times faster than inflation
Inflation soars as RBA doubles down
12:16 pm
While Australia has seen three rate cuts and three rate hikes in 12 months, comparable economies like the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom have seen far less movement on the cash rate front across the same period.
Despite this, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser used a public appearance 10 days ago to say the bank does not regret its U-turn, adding it is easy to criticise central bank decisions with the benefit of hindsight.
Headline inflation rose 4.2% in the 12 months to April and is expected to peak this month, before slowly returning to within the RBA’s 2-3% target range late next year, spelling trouble for the cash rate outlook for 2026 and 2027.
The cash rate is likely to go up the longer it takes inflation to cool, and the main instigator of high inflation, the longer-term effects of the Iran War, will continue to linger. A rate hike this afternoon remains a possibility.
Read more: RBA defends rate hikes: ‘Other countries would kill for our problems’
Welcome to our live coverage of today’s RBA cash rate decision
12:02 pm
In just over two hours’ time, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy board will wrap up its latest two-day meeting and reveal its next decision on the cash rate.
We’ll be here all afternoon to share the latest news, updates and forecasts from leading economists, market insiders, lenders and property industry specialists in the lead up to the announcement.
While the bank is largely expected to hold the 4.35% cash rate steady today, a fourth hike for the year is also on the table. Another rate rise would mark the first time the RBA has made this many consecutive hikes since Australia was battling severe post-Covid high inflation at the start of 2023.
Mortgage holders, prospective buyers and investors will be looking to the RBA to provide a clear outlook of what can be expected in both the short- and longer-term as the country continues to feel the effects from four months of war in the Middle East.
Read more: How declining affordability may be influencing housing choices in Australia
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