October 24, 2024 by Mark Ferguson
With over 20 years of experience as a realtor and real estate investor, I’ve been tracking housing report patterns closely, and today’s data reveals some interesting developments that we should all pay attention to. In this post, I’ll cover my take on the housing market and what may be in store for us over the next few months.
Video Version: Is the Housing Market Starting to Falter?
Active Listings Show Steady Increase
The national active listing count has been steadily climbing throughout 2024, though it remains significantly below pre-COVID levels. While this increase might concern some market watchers, it’s important to note that:
- Current inventory levels are still well below 2017-2019 figures
- The market remains competitive despite interest rates being 2-3 times higher than pre-COVID
- The seasonal pattern typically shows an increase until August before declining
Unexpected Surge in New Listings
One of the most surprising developments in the September report is the unusual uptick in new listings. Typically, new listings decrease during this time of year, but we’re seeing an increase that breaks from historical patterns. This could be related to:
- Recent Federal Reserve rate decisions
- Market anticipation of lower mortgage rates
- Sellers timing their market entry
Residential-detached homes for sale in my market.
Mortgage Rate Dynamics
The relationship between Fed rates and mortgage rates continues to be complex:
- Recent rates fluctuated between 5.7% and 6.5%
- Strong jobs report data has influenced rate movements
- Mortgage rates remain more closely tied to 10-year Treasury rates than Fed funds rates
Rental Property Cash Flow Calculator
Days on Market Remains Stable
Despite increased inventory, the days-on-market metric remains lower than pre-COVID levels, indicating continued market strength. This metric shows:
- Similar patterns to recent years
- No abnormal increases despite higher inventory
- Continued strong buyer demand
Price Trends and Reductions
The median listing price is showing typical seasonal patterns:
- Only 1% decrease year-over-year
- Normal seasonal decline from summer peak
- Price reduction shares actually decreasing more than usual
Here’s a view of residential-detached house prices in my market from 2014 until now.
New Construction Insights
The new construction data provides valuable forward-looking indicators:
- Single-family home starts remain sensitive to interest rate changes
- Completion rates have maintained steady levels
- Supply chain and labor markets continue to influence building activity
Housing Occupancy Trends
Recent data shows interesting developments in housing occupancy:
- Owner-occupied units reached record highs at 86 million
- Rental occupancy has increased alongside ownership
- Population growth is driving demand in both sectors
Is There Really a Record Number of Houses Being Built Right Now?
Market Outlook
Based on current data and historical trends, several key factors suggest continued market stability:
- Persistent housing supply constraints
- Strong demographic demand drivers
- Steady owner-occupancy rates
- Continued population growth affecting housing demand
Conclusion
While we’re seeing some unusual patterns in new listings and inventory, the fundamental market indicators remain strong. The combination of limited supply, steady demand, and population growth continues to support market stability.
As we monitor these trends, it’s crucial to remember that short-term fluctuations are normal in real estate markets, and the overall structural factors supporting housing demand remain intact.
Where do you think we’ll be in a few months? Let me know in the comments below!
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