Buyers are being told to ignore quoted prices and lowball vendors as tax fears, interest rate pressure and weaker auction confidence put house hunters in charge.
House hunters are being urged to “lowball” vendors as tax concerns, interest rate pressure and winter nerves plunge the property market into a state of fear.
It’s grim news for the 779 Melbourne home sellers PropTrack figures show are scheduled to test the auction market this week, down 17 per cent from the same time last year.
Industry Insider Property Advocates director Andrew Date said Melbourne buyers had been pushed into a holding pattern by a string of government-driven policy changes.
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“I think what’s driving the lack of confidence right now is really government-driven policy change,” Mr Date said.
“You’ve got negative gearing, capital gains tax and, more recently, what happened with residential property in self-managed super funds.
“You combine that with three rate hikes in 2026, the war and inflation. They’re the big things in the room that are putting buyers into a state of fear and into a holding pattern.”
Next week, Melbourne’s auction volumes are expected to fall further to 597, down 23 per cent from the same time last year, while Sydney is expected to have 647 auctions, down 13 per cent.
Industry Insider Property Advocates director Andrew Date said buyers needed to know a vendor’s motivation and be prepared to push hard on price in the current market.
Mr Date said homes were still selling, but only when vendors were prepared to meet the market.
“When you go deeper, there are still properties selling, but it is very, very price sensitive,” he said.
“If you’re not willing to let the property go at market value, and you don’t have enough buyers, then you’re better off not selling.
“You’re better off waiting until confidence returns.”
Mr Date said his advice to buyers was to find out how long a property had been on the market, understand how motivated the vendor was and be prepared to push hard.
“In this market, I’d be lowballing,” he said.
“This is the market where buyers need to know the history, know the motivation and be prepared to push hard.”
Melbourne has 779 homes scheduled for auction this week, down 17 per cent from the same time last year, according to PropTrack.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan. Property experts say tax changes, rate pressure and state policy uncertainty have added to buyer and vendor nerves. Picture: David Crosling
He said the downturn had also created an opening for cashed-up families looking to upgrade.
“For buyers who are sitting on a home worth $2m, $3m or $4m, if they have a lot of equity and the banks will let them borrow, I’d be telling them to sell and then go and buy a $6m, $7m or $8m property,” Mr Date said.
“Those properties higher up the price point have come back significantly more than properties at the lower end.
“That is where the opportunity is.”
Zaralend broker and director Steph Jordan said buyers should have fully assessed finance, a clear walk-away number and contract checks completed before bidding.
Experts say buyers should not assume every vendor will accept a bargain, despite weaker confidence and fewer auctions across Melbourne and Sydney.
Zaralend broker and director Steph Jordan said buyers trying to pick the bottom of the market risked missing their chance.
“We don’t know when the bottom of the market is going to be until after it’s happened,” Ms Jordan said.
“I don’t think waiting to buy property is the right decision. If you can get in now, it’s absolutely the best time.”
Ms Jordan said first-home buyers were still making inquiries, particularly as weaker investor and self-managed super fund activity reduced competition in some parts of the market.
But she warned buyers needed fully assessed finance, a clear walkaway number, building and pest inspections, contract checks and owners corporation reviews before bidding.
“It’s hard to get a bargain if the vendor doesn’t want to sell for a bargain,” she said.
“What the vendor wants and what the market’s paying are two different things.”
Kay & Burton prestige director Darren Lewenberg said Melbourne was not in complete paralysis, with buyers still making offers and deals still being done.
Kay & Burton prestige director Darren Lewenberg said Melbourne’s property market was not as bleak as some recent auction figures suggested.
“I’m just not holding the view that this is some completely abysmal market,” Mr Lewenberg said.
“Right now, we are getting offers on properties. Buyers are coming through properties. Yes, we have to hustle deals. Yes, generally, we are not achieving quoted prices. But there are buyers out there and deals are getting done.
“We are also not in a state of complete paralysis out there.”
Mr Lewenberg said buyers from New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia were already looking for value in Victoria.
“The opportunity for prospective buyers, in terms of the prices they can secure property for, is almost generational,” he said.
“We have an environment for buyers that we have not seen for a long, long time.”
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