High mortgage rates, low inventory and stagnant demand have made life difficult for real estate brokerages in recent years, and President Donald Trump’s tariff policy isn’t helping.
The massive scale and scope of Trump’s new global tariff regime shocked the stock market, shot the dollar downward and briefly tanked the bond market as well, which prompted the president to pause those tariffs just hours after they took effect.
The market upheaval claimed most brokerage stocks as well. Major brokerage equities have underperformed the S&P 500 since April 2, which was Trump’s “Liberation Day” rollout of the new tariffs. Only The Real Brokerage is up over that time period.
Brokerage stocks have sagged since the beginning of Trump’s second term. Of the nine companies HousingWire analyzed, only three are up relative to April 2 — Redfin (10.9%), Compass (16.1%) and Real (2.2%).
There are caveats to the gains for Redfin and Compass. Compass stock jumped by 28.3% in February after its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call, which showed the company posting a 26% annual increase in revenue and an increased market share of 5.06%.
Conversely, Redfin’s subpar fourth-quarter earnings call shot its stock down by 25.4% relative to the beginning of Trump’s second term. But the brokerage got a lifeline with the announcement that Rocket Mortgage was acquiring it for $1.75 billion, which led to the stock jumping by 67.9% in one day.
Real was up by 19.8% in the month after Trump was inaugurated thanks to a positive earnings call, but fell into the red in early March and was down 11.7% in the run up to April 2. Since then it’s climbed into positive territory at 2.2%, though that is the result of the last three days of trading.
While tariffs have an indirect impact on brokerages, the plunge in consumer confidence that accompanied “Liberation Day” might prompt some prospective homebuyers to pause their search as they wait to see how things unfold.
New listings in some markets have spiked in the last two weeks, which suggests some sellers want to get out ahead of any long-term fallout that comes from the tariffs, should Trump let them take effect when the 90-day pause he placed them under expires.
While brokerage stocks have taken a hit, homebuilder equities have fared worse. Of the nine HousingWire analyzed, seven are down by more than 15% since Trump was inaugurated.
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