The expanded five per cent deposit scheme, now available for homes priced up to $1 million, should be a game changer but eligibility only matters if enough homes sit below that threshold.
Right now, the number that do is falling fast.
Our latest Ray White analysis of the Gold Coast market alone shows that affordable house sales have more than halved in just four years.
In 2021, more than 35,000 houses across the city sold under $1 million.
Today, that rolling annual figure is just 16,642.
Units have seen a similar drop, down from around 17,000 to 11,720 over the same period. This sharp decline in affordable listings means significantly fewer opportunities for buyers who can access the scheme.
Even more concerning: only one in four detached houses on the Gold Coast now sell under the $1 million threshold.
For units, it’s around seven in ten.
This is better, but still slipping each year as price growth continues to outpace supply.
Where homes are still attainable, competition is fierce.
Coomera and Pimpama, two of the region’s fastest-growing suburbs, dominate for houses under the cap, together accounting for nearly 500 eligible sales in the past year.
13 Burghardt Court, Pimpama, sold for $985,000
For units, Surfers Paradise towers above the pack with 856 sales under $1 million, followed by Southport and Labrador.
Units in Surfers Paradise are doing the heavy lifting.. Picture Glenn Hampson
These pockets are effectively carrying the weight of affordability in a city where new development has increasingly skewed toward premium product.
The story behind the numbers is simple: demand continues to surge while supply remains constrained.
Interstate migration to the Gold Coast is among the strongest in the country.
Investor activity has returned, providing much needed rental supply but they competing with first home buyers.
Downsizers want to stay local.
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Ray White
Ray White
And construction delays and high building costs mean new supply continues to lag well behind what is needed.
Government support has overwhelmingly boosted the demand side of the market, helping more first-home buyers compete.
Without the five per cent deposit scheme, many would continue renting indefinitely.
But boosting demand in isolation has consequences. Increased borrowing power is chasing a shrinking pool of eligible homes, pushing prices higher rather than improving genuine affordability.
This is where the next stage of the affordability challenge lies.
Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee
The scheme opens the front door, but planning and supply decisions determine whether there is a house behind it. We must move quickly to deliver more diverse, medium-density options – townhouses, smaller family homes and quality mid-rise developments – particularly in suburbs still offering an attainable path to ownership.
The dream of home ownership remains alive on the Gold Coast.
But without a meaningful lift in supply, particularly at the entry level, that dream will continue to drift further out of reach.
The five per cent deposit scheme has created opportunity. Ensuring enough homes are priced to meet it must now be the priority.
*Nerida Conisbee is the chief economist for the Ray White Group
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