Homeowners in capital cities are often worse-off than renters, with mortgage repayments only projected to become more cost-effective than renting many years after buying.
The Great Australian Dream has long seen would-be buyers across the country jumping onto the property ladder as soon as possible, often sacrificing on property size and desired location to get a foothold in the market.
While the age-old adage is that a property-seeker is always better off paying their own mortgage, the PropTrack modeling highlights the heavy premium buyers shoulder at the start of the journey.
The data shows it’s cheaper to rent than own in many areas across the country and continues to be so for more than a decade in some capital cities.
At the point when owning a home does finally become cheaper than renting, however, buyers win out with having the benefit of the asset.
Sydney homeowners have the longest wait time for mortgage repayments to become more affordable than rent. Picture: Getty
Sydney homeowners have the longest wait time for mortgage repayments in their area to become cheaper than rent, at an average of 13.8 years.
Darwin is the outlier in the data, as the only capital where the crossover point has, on average, already been reached.
The modeling takes into account median dwelling sale prices to determine monthly repayments, before monthly rental costs are compounded using each city's 10-year average monthly rental growth rate.
| City | Loan amount | Monthly mortgage repayments | Monthly rent repayments | Years taken for rent > mortgage repayments | Crossover time |
| Sydney | $944,000 | $5,721 | $3,250 | 13 years, 10 months | 2039 |
| Brisbane | $726,400 | $4402 | $2,817 | 8 years, 11 months | 2034 |
| Perth | $648,000 | $3,927 | $3,033 | 4 years, 7 months | 2030 |
| Adelaide | $680,000 | $4,121 | $2,600 | 7 years, 8 months | 2033 |
| Canberra | $661,600 | $4,009 | $2,730 | 9 years, 6 months | 2035 |
| Melbourne | $632,000 | $3,830 | $2,492 | 10 years, 4 months | 2036 |
| Hobart | $552,000 | $3,345 | $2,383 | 6 years, 3 months | 2032 |
| Darwin | $445,600 | $2,700 | $2,817 | – | 2026 |
REA Group senior economist Anne Flaherty said the findings show rents are continuing to rise in Australia’s capital cities, despite being slower than 12 months ago.
Rents are on track to outstrip the cost of home loan repayments after several years in almost all of the the nation’s capital cities.
“Rents were sitting at record highs in every market in December and are expected to reach new records in 2026, REA Group senior economist Anne Flaherty said.
“While rent growth is expected to continue moderating in 2026, vacancy rates remain low and population growth will fuel demand for more rentals.”
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate in both February and March. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Christian Gilles.
Two cash rate rises in the last seven weeks alone have blown out the statistics even further as variable rates rise and fixed rate home loan offers increase.
Sydney
A buyer in Australia’s most expensive capital, Sydney, will wait until 2039 for rent prices to exceed the price of home loan repayments – a time period almost half the length of a typical mortgage.
Assuming a loan amount of $944,000 in Sydney, monthly mortgage repayments sit around $5721, while rent payments are just $3250.
Buyers in pricy hotspots across Sydney’s eastern suburbs and lower north shore are set to wait the longest until mortgage repayments on a house are more affordable than rent, including in Mosman (48 years to 2074), Roseville (42 years to 2068), and East Lindfield (42 years to 2068).
When it comes to units, its homeowners in Cremorne Point who will be waiting the longest, with rent to stay cheaper than repayments until 2061.
Brisbane
In Brisbane, where the median price of a home is 15.9% higher than this time last year, the average crossover point where mortgage repayments will become cheaper is in 2034.
Owning a house in Highgate Hill is especially unrewarding when comparing renting and buying, with a crossover date of 2054.
A house in Taringa will have cheaper mortgages repayments than rent by 2049, while a homeowner in Wilston will be waiting until 2051.
261 Stanley Terrace, Taringa sold for $2,825,000 in February. Picture: realestate.com.au/sold
Margate in Brisbane’s north has the longest crossover wait when it comes to units, with rent only set to become the less affordable option in 2037.
Perth
Perth is now Australia's third most expensive city, with a median home price of $987,000, according to the latest PropTrack Home Price Index.
On average, rents in the city are expected to be more affordable than repayments on a home loan until 2030.
Riverside suburb Applecross boasts an impressive $2,815,000 median house sale price but also has the longest wait until crossover, which is not expected until 2053.
Home owners with a mortgage in Mosman Park, South Perth and Mount Pleasant follow, all with crossover times more than 20 years in the future.
When it comes to units in Perth, Dudley Park in the fast-value growing Mandurah region has the longest wait time until repayments are more affordable than rent.
Adelaide
In Adelaide, the nation’s fourth-priciest capital, mortgage holders will be waiting until September 2033 on average to be better off in the hip-pocket than renters each month.
Inner eastern hotspot St Peters is where homeowners with a house will wait the longest to have their repayments drop lower than rental prices (34 years to 2060), followed by Kensington Park (30 years to 2056), Fulham (28 years to 2054) and Unley (24 years to 2050).
Mortgage repayments on a unit in North Adelaide, which has the city’s highest median sale price of $752,000, will be paying more each month than renters until 2037.
Canberra
Homeowners in the nation’s capital will wait another nine years on average for monthly mortgage repayments to be lower than rent, with Mawson in Canberra’s Woden Valley district the suburb where it takes owners of houses the longest to break even.
O’Connor and Whitlam, which have median house sale prices of $1,675,000 and $1,325,000, respectively, have the second- and third longest waits when it comes to house repayments, taking until 2052 and 2048 for mortgages to become cheaper.
Those who own a unit Barton will wait until 2035 for crossover – the longest wait in Canberra when it comes to apartments.
Melbourne
Although Melbourne is the nation’s third-cheapest city in which to buy a property, homeowners with a mortgage still have a long wait to get ahead of renters when it comes to savings each month.
On average, PropTrack’s data shows it will take until 2036 for the price of rent to outstrip home loan repayments.
House owners in pricey east-Melbourne hotspot Mont Albert will have the longest wait (43 years to 2069), followed by Toorak, Elsternwick and Canterbury.
For units, Brighton homeowners have the longest wait for their home loan repayments to drop below rental prices, with crossover not until 2046.
Hobart
In Hobart, where the median home price is currently $718,000, it will take until 2032 for home loan repayments to be less than rent on average.
In Geilston Bay, which has a median sale price of $770,000 for a house, the crossover is projected to come in 2065.
There are also longer waits in Battery Point (18 years to 2044), Sandy Bay (14 years to 2040), and West Hobart (11 years to 2037).
Battery Point also comes out when crunching the numbers for units, where homeowners will need to wait until 2034 for a crossover.
Battery Point, Tasmania. Picture: realestate.com.au/sold
Darwin
Australia’s most affordable capital city is the nation’s greatest property price success story of the past 12 months, with median prices up a whopping 16.2% on February 2025.
It is also the only capital where the crossover point has, on average, already been reached.
There are still some suburbs where houses are waiting on mortgage repayments to drop lower than rental costs, with northern Hobart hotspot Tiwi having the longest wait, until 2039.
Tiwi is followed by Anula, with a crossover date of 2032, Wulagi, in 2029, and Leanyer in 2028.
This article first appeared on Mortgage Choice and has been republished with permission.
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