SQM Research director Louis Christopher predicts housing growth for Darwin in 2026
Darwin’s housing market is forecast to lead the nation with price hikes of 12 to 16 per cent in 2026.
SQM Research’s annual Housing Boom and Bust Report tipped another year of huge growth for the Top End, with Darwin equal top-ranked with Perth among four capitals expected to outperform the big southern cities.
The report, released today, highlighted NT’s unique economic drivers and housing market dynamics fuelling the boom.
SQM’s base scenario forecast a national average rise of 6 to 10 per cent across dwellings in all capital cities in 2026, with Brisbane and Adelaide also outperforming, up 10-15 and 10-14 per cent respectively.
Darwin was top-ranked in the report with Perth
By contrast, prices in Sydney would rise by 3 to 6 per cent, and 4 to 7 per cent in Melbourne.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said Darwin’s buoyant property market was underpinned by a solid economic foundation, strong first-home buyer activity, and tight supply.
“After that initial population bump from folks escaping southern lockdowns a few years back, Darwin’s numbers have settled into a steadier rhythm,” Mr Christopher said.
While the territory’s population growth of 1.3 per cent to March 2025 lagged the national average, future forecasts aim for 285,000 residents by 2046.
“Natural growth stays strong with more births than deaths, and overseas migration is holding positive, though those interstate outflows continue to be a drag,” he added.
Mr Christopher said the city would benefit from new economic drivers along with its historical ties to the resources sector
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Economically, Mr Christopher pointed to a resilient labour market, with unemployment at 4.2 per cent in September, and wage growth also forecast to pick up to about 3.3 per cent by end 2026.
Mr Christopher acknowledged Darwin’s historical ties to the resources sector but highlighted new economic drivers.
“Darwin’s housing ups and downs still track the minerals and energy swings pretty closely,” he said.
“Right now, with diamond mine closures hitting hard, the NT economy would be facing some contraction in 2025, though public spending is holding things up.”
However, the Barossa gas project was set to be a game-changer.
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Turning to the housing market itself, Mr Christopher reflected on 2025’s rebound of up to 16 per cent price growth, exceeding the predicted 8 per cent uplift.
He said fallings listings and low vacancy rates were “classic signs of a market gearing up for more upside”, creating a “seller’s edge heading into 2026”.
First-home buyers were expected to be a key sales driver, with Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showing the cohort made up a substantial 43 per cent of owner-occupier loan commitments in the NT, significantly higher than the national average, thanks to strong government support and lower entry prices.
SQM Research director Louis Christopher
Mr Christopher himself offered a more conservative, yet still optimistic, personal outlook outside the report’s base scenario.
“I’m eyeing 5 to 8 per cent gains in Darwin, fuelled by Barossa jobs and strong wages, assuming no big economic hiccups.
“This rise will also certainly be driven by first-home buyers. If anything, the risks are on the upside at this point in time rather than the downside of our forecasts.”
The research assumed moderate national population growth of about 390,000 people, translating to demand for about 150,000 new dwellings.
This one-bedroom apartment in Darwin City is for sale at offers over $500,000
While dwelling completions were expected to rise to 180,000, creating a small surplus, underlying demand remained strong.
Interest rates were forecast to remain steady until mid-2026, with likely one or two 0.25 per cent rate cuts thereafter.
Despite a projected slowdown in employment growth and a rise in unemployment to 5 per cent, momentum from the second half of 2025 was expected to carry through.
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