Canada plans to limit permanent resident visas next year, but they’re already plunging lower without restrictions. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows permanent resident applications made a sharp drop in July. Even if the current trend stops eroding and stabilizes, the country would struggle to hit next year’s planned limits without any policy changes. A problem that policymakers would have been aware of when they decided to make the announcement.
Canadian Permanent Resident Applications Fall 57% Lower, Worst Month In Years
Monthly Canadian permanent resident applications received by the IRCC.
Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.
Canadian permanent resident applications have made a sharp drop over the past twelve months. The IRCC received just 17k in July, down a whopping 57% compared to the same month last year. It was the third consecutive month to report negative year-over-year (y/y) growth—all in the double-digit range. It also happened to be one of the weakest months for applications going back at least 3 years.
The most recent data reported stands in stark contrast to the start of the year. Permanent resident applications in the first 4 months of 2024 came in much higher than last year. In May it completely nosedived, plunging sharply into negative territory.
Canadian Permanent Resident Applications YTD Now Negative
The contraction over the most recent months was so sharp that it pulled the whole year into negative territory. IRCC data shows they received 274.5k permanent residency applications in July year-to-date (YTD), down 3% from last year. It’s a whopping 37% lower than the volume received in 2021, back when there was a scramble to move to Canada.
Canada Plans To Limit Permanent Resident Applications Next Year
The Government of Canada (GoC) recently announced it would lower its application limit as a part of a broader scheme to control population growth. They had originally targeted 500,000 applications for 2025, but has since slashed that limit down to 395k people. If the current YTD trend stabilizes (and doesn’t erode further), the agency would struggle to hit that volume of applications. Nevermind the actual volume of permits needed.
The latest IRCC data is July, but the agency would have real-time estimates. They’re likely already aware of a decline in applications, and imposing limits to appear in charge and mitigate the appearance of falling appeal to immigrants. Regardless, prepare for slower population growth to arrive soon—possibly much earlier than next year’s planned limits.
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