Canadian Hiring Weakens As Job Vacancies Hit Near Decade-Low

Canadians aren’t exaggerating when they complain about this job market—hiring hasn’t been this weak in almost a decade. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows fewer job vacancies in March than last year. Those looking for employment face the weakest vacancy rate in nearly a decade, a red flag for the whole economy. 

Take This Job & Shove It—Why Job Vacancies Are Important

Job vacancies sound boring if you’re not in the job market, but it’s one of the most important economic indicators. Vacancies are a leading indicator of the business cycle, telling us where we’re heading. That contrasts with a lagging indicator like unemployment, which confirms where we are. Both types of indicators provide essential insights, but tell us different things. 

Rising vacancies are generally a positive sign, while declines are bad news. Employers hire when they’re confident about the future, a sign of expansion. They slash hiring when they’re not, and while it doesn’t always mean layoffs, layoffs are preceded by hiring cuts. The effect also isn’t abstract. It has real consequences for those who keep their jobs, too. 

Labour demand is a key factor that influences wages and thus inflation. The vacancy rate is unfilled jobs as a share of total labour demand—unfilled jobs plus payroll employees. A climbing rate means the balance is shifting to workers, as employers compete for labour. This applies upward pressure on wages, but it turns inflationary if it persists for too long. A falling rate means the balance moves towards employers as workers compete. If persistent, it applies downward pressure on wages, and can be deflationary. Deflation is a bigger threat to policymakers in a highly indebted economy, as it increases the real cost of debt. 

Got it? Now for the data!

Canadian Job Vacancies See Weakest March Since 2017

Canadian job vacancies climbed 0.5% (+2.57k) to 500,340 unfilled roles in March, down 3.2% (-16.53k) from last year. It was the second month in a row to show growth, but there’s no way to sugarcoat how dramatically the job market has turned. Since reaching a record high in 2022, the number of vacant roles has plunged 49.4% (-488.1k). This was the weakest March since 2017, nearly a decade ago. The country’s population has grown significantly since then. 

The decline in vacancies is more concerning when contrasted with the latest payroll numbers. Payroll fell 0.15% (-25.6k) to 17.43 million workers in March. For every 10 payroll jobs lost, vacancies increased by just one. That makes it harder to dismiss the drop as a retirement story. The roles disappearing from payrolls aren’t being replaced with new openings.   

The job vacancy rate was 2.8% in March, unchanged from a month before and 0.1 points lower than this time last year. Once again, this is a dramatic change from the 5.7% at the 2022 peak, leaving it at roughly half that rate. It’s an unusually low rate with March coming in at its weakest level since 2017—just shy of a decade. Canada spent the past decade struggling to expand its economy fast enough to absorb its pool of workers. 

Canadians can debate the job market through a political lens, but the politically agnostic data is blunt. Employers are hiring less, lost payroll jobs aren’t being replaced, and workers have less leverage than they did just a few years ago. That may help cool wage pressure, but it carries a much bigger warning: this is what a weakening economy looks like before unemployment tells the rest of the story.