Rate cuts from mid‑2026 could set off a price sprint, with SQM Research tipping national home values to climb 6 to 10 per cent and several capitals posting double‑digit gains.
Perth and Darwin are expected to lead, rising as much as 12 to 16 per cent as tight supply meets renewed demand.
SQM’s Boom and Bust report says rate relief would shift the market from resilience to acceleration, with Brisbane and Adelaide also poised to outpace the nation if the Reserve Bank moves on schedule.
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Perth is forecast to surge 12 to 16 per cent, which would take the WA capital’s $899,000 median to about $1,006,880 on a 12 per cent rise and $1,042,840 on a 16 per cent jump, based on PropTrack data.
Darwin’s $565,000 median is set to lift to roughly $632,000 to $655,400, while Adelaide is tipped for 10 to 14 per cent growth, pushing its $880,000 median towards the $1m mark.
In Brisbane, buyers could be forking out an extra 10 to 15 per cent next year, lifting the city’s $976,000 median past $1m – to about $1,073,600 on a 10 per cent gain or $1,122,400 on 15 per cent.
Source: SQM Research
Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra are the relative underperformers this cycle, with smaller rises forecast.
Melbourne and Hobart are expected to add 4 to 7 per cent – taking medians to at least $879,840 and $709,280, respectively – while Canberra’s median is set to increase 3 to 6 per cent to between $884,770 and $910,540.
SQM’s base case assumes rates hold steady until mid‑2026 before one or two 25‑basis‑point cuts, a steady but sluggish economy, and inflation averaging 2.5 to 2.7 per cent.
Population growth is expected to moderate to about 390,000 people (1.4 per cent), creating demand for roughly 150,000 dwellings, while completions rise to around 180,000 – a small surplus of about 30,000 for the year.
SQM Research director Louis Christopher
“2025 has been a year of resilience for the Australian property market, driven by strong population inflows and initial monetary policy easing; plus in recent months, the First Home Buyer Deposit Scheme,” SQM managing director Louis Christopher said.
“However, as we look to 2026, the outlook is shaped by a range of potential economic paths, from a sluggish economy – which is our base case – through to sticky inflation delaying rate relief to a global slowdown; or even a robust economic rebound is possible. Our scenarios highlight the market’s sensitivity to these factors, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide poised for double‑digit growth in all cases due to their supply constraints and economic momentum.”
If cuts land on schedule and supply stays tight, 2026 could be one of the strongest price years of the decade. If inflation proves sticky and relief slips, gains may be more modest – but the bias is up.
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