The latest data for September 2024 reveals a significant downturn in agent mobility, with the seasonally adjusted metric hitting its lowest point for September in eight years. This decline suggests that agents are increasingly hesitant to switch brokerages as we move deeper into the fall season.
Key observations from September
Seasonally Adjusted Metric at 8-Year Low:
The AMI’s seasonally adjusted figure for September dropped to 84.2, the lowest since 2016, indicating a sharp decrease in agent movement compared to previous years.
Acceleration of Decline:
The reduction in agent mobility, which began over the summer, has not only continued but accelerated into the fall months.
Potential Reasons for Decline:
NAR Settlement Distractions: The implementation of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement has created industry-wide distractions, causing agents to focus on adapting to new regulations rather than considering brokerage changes.
Agents Exiting the Industry: There may be an uptick in agents who are planning to leave the real estate industry altogether, reducing the pool of professionals interested in changing brokerages. We’ll know more when license renewal season arrives at the end of the year.
Challenges for Recruiters:
With the current market conditions, recruiters will face increased difficulties in attracting and retaining top talent this fall. Rob Keefe commented on these developments: “The data from September underscores a pivotal moment in our industry. Agents are exercising caution, influenced by the NAR settlement’s implications and uncertainties about their future in real estate. Recruiters will need to be more strategic and proactive to navigate these challenges successfully.”
This month’s findings mark a continuation—and acceleration—of trends noted in our recent releases. In August 2024, we observed the agent mobility hitting a record low, and now September’s data confirms that the downward trajectory is persisting. The decline contrasts sharply with the more optimistic outlook from earlier in the year, such as our May 2024 report, where we highlighted an increase in agent mobility and a rise in active agents. The September AMI recorded a trailing 12-month score of 96.6, a monthly score of 87.4, and a seasonally adjusted figure of 84.2, all reflecting the significant decrease in agent movement.
Rob Keefe is the President of Relitix.
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