Adelaide could be staring down the barrel of a median home price of almost $980,000 this time next year if a new forecast proves accurate.
PropTrack’s Property Outlook Report has Adelaide’s house price tipped to rise from its current $898,000 by 6 to 9 per cent over the next 12 months – the second greatest forecast increase after both Perth and Brisbane who tied for top spot with a predicted 7 to 10 per cent uptick.
At a 9 per cent increase, this would take Adelaide’s median up $80,820 to $978,820.
Australia’s combined capital city forecast was for between 6 and 8 per cent, and Adelaide’s predicted growth, despite being above this, represents a significant cooling from the 12.2 per cent home values rose by between November 2023 and November 2024.
Adelaide is tipped for more solid growth.
Nationally, our combined capital cities’ values increased by 8.5 per cent during this period.
In the report, Adelaide’s outlook for 2026 was described as “solid”.
“But the city has experienced a remarkable increase in home prices in recent years, meaning affordability is very challenging,” it read.
“Momentum will naturally ease as home prices are now much higher.
“Price growth is expected to remain positive but below the pace of recent years as growth moderates.”
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Harris Real Estate managing director Phil Harris said the 6 to 9 per cent growth forecast was in line with what he would expect for next year.
“I might have said 7 to 10 and we say it will be coming back to a more normalised growth, but it wasn’t that long ago when six to nine per cent was considered really strong growth, considering that for the best part of a decade there home prices grew by about 1.9 per cent,” he said.
“It’s still very good growth, it’s only in relativity coming back from 12 per cent and 20 per cent-plus during the Covid years – it’s still an incredibly strong property market.
“It makes sense that it would be more subdued than how this year has been particularly with the talk of interest rates rising, however the fundamental problem still exists that there is a housing shortage and that will continue to fuel capital growth.”
Harris Real Estate managing director Phil Harris.
Mr Harris said cost of living pressures would do little to temper price growth, and those looking to enter the market would likely need to stretch themselves further than ever.
“The challenge is there’s not an option – the reality is across all segments of the market across SA, particularly metropolitan Adelaide, most properties are receiving multiple offers, so buyers don’t have an option - they really have to push themselves to the limit to secure property,” he said.
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“In terms of disposable income, I’d expect to see some of those dollars going towards the mortgage.”
REA Group senior economist Angus Moore said Australia’s housing market enters 2026 with prices still rising, but signs that momentum is moderating.
REA Group’s Angus Moore.
“The tight supply backdrop that has supported price growth this year remains, yet stretched affordability and an extended pause on interest rates are set to temper the pace of growth.
“As a result, 2026 is more likely to deliver a steady and slower pace of growth compared to 2025, with stretched affordability meaning growth will remain well below the 20 to 30 per cent annual gains seen in past booms.
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