Adelaide house prices are forecast to outperform the national price projection and climb to a record high in 2026, regardless of what interest rates do, a new report shows.
According to SQM research’s Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2024, Adelaide home values are set to increase by anything from 9 to 18 per cent over the next year, ahead of a potential increase of between 4 and 14 per cent across the national capitals.
Under their projections, assuming a 25 to 50 basis point cut from mid-2026, a steady but sluggish economy and inflation at 2.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent, Adelaide home values would increase by 10 to 14 per cent – streets ahead of the national average of 6 to 10 per cent growth. The report calls this scenario one.
Adelaide, SA – where prices are tipped to boom next year. Picture: Brenton Edwards
Scenario 2, ‘sticky inflation’ conditions in which there is no rate cut until late 2026, inflation rising to a 2.75 to 3.2 per cent yearly average, and a slower economy, would see values increase by 9 per cent to 13 per cent – again ahead of the 4 per cent to 8 per cent average projection for capital cities.
The third scenario – one with 0.75 to 1 per cent in rate cuts throughout the year and unemployment rising to 5.5 per cent in 2026 – would see Adelaide house values increase by 11 to 15 per cent.
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This is compared to a 6 to 10 per cent forecast for Australia’s capital cities.
The fourth scenario, one of economic rebound, has rate cuts throughout the year of 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent, lower inflation of 1.9 to 2.1 per cent and unemployment falling to low 4 per cent.
Under these conditions, Adelaide prices climb by 14 to 18 per cent, ahead of a national 10 to 14 per cent forecast.
SQM Research director Louis Christopher
SQM Research owner and managing director, and report author Louis Christopher said under each of the report’s forecast scenarios, the market would continue to favour sellers.
“The Adelaide housing market is overall in a seller’s advantage,” he said.
“This should make for another solid year in the Adelaide housing market.
“Our forecast therefore is for price rises of 10 per cent to 14 per cent and a firming rental market for the city in 2026, on the back of affordability constraints starting to bite after recent gains, though supported by economic projects like green energy and defence spending.”
Mr Christopher said 2025 had been a year of resilience for the Australian property market, driven by strong population inflows and initial monetary policy easing; plus the First Home Buyer Deposit Scheme in recent months.
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“However, as we look to 2026, the outlook is shaped by a range of potential economic paths, from a sluggish economy, which is our base case through to sticky inflation delaying rate relief to a global slowdown; or even a robust economic rebound is possible.
“Our scenarios highlight the market’s sensitivity to these factors, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide poised for double-digit growth in all cases due to their supply constraints and economic momentum.”
REISA CEO Andrea Heading. Supplied
In reflecting on the latest Valuer-General’s figures, which were released earlier this month, Real Estate Institute of South Australia chief executive officer Andrea Heading said Adelaide’s growth this past year had been strong and “sustainable”.
“The market has proven remarkably steady and reliable throughout the year,” she said.
“Buyers are clearly still active and willing to pay for quality, well-positioned homes.
“While growth remains strong, it is underpinned by sensible buying behaviour — people are seeking stability and long-term value in the South Australian market, not just short-term opportunity.
“South Australia continues to outperform expectations.
“Our growth has been strong but measured, which is the hallmark of a sustainable market.”
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