45k homes to vanish as prices tipped to fall in $3bn tax fallout

Sophie Foster

Updated 23 Mar 2026, 11:19am

First published 23 Mar 2026, 11:14am

New modelling warns around 45,000 homes won’t be built if tax changes involving negative gearing and CGT discounts come into force.

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A radical shake-up of Australia’s housing tax system could wipe more than 45,000 homes from supply, push house prices down and strip billions from the economy, explosive new modelling shows.

The report by Master Builders Australia, Housing Industry Association, Property Council of Australia and Real Estate Institute of Australia examined the impact of scrapping negative gearing, removing capital gains tax (CGT) discounts, and a combination of both policies, finding that the most severe single change would come from removing negative gearing.

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Number of rental properties owned by individuals 2021-22. Source: Master Builders Australia, Housing Industry Association, Property Council of Australia and Real Estate Institute of Australia.

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The modelling found that alone would “reduce dwelling starts to the end of the decade by up to 45,524 dwellings” and cut GDP by $3.1 billion.

The report also warned of an immediate hit to property values, with dwelling prices likely to fall in the short run.

It found that any changes to capital gains tax discounts would also deliver a major blow, cutting new housing supply by 33,353 dwellings and reducing economic output by more than $2.2 billion.

But the biggest shock came of when the two policies were combined – a scenario under which housing starts would fall by nearly 46,000 dwellings, with a broader economic hit of more than $3 billion.

Economic impacts projected from removing negative gearing. Source: Master Builders Australia, Housing Industry Association, Property Council of Australia and Real Estate Institute of Australia.

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All scenarios were expected to see fewer homes being built as investment slowed, according to the modelling, which would spark job losses in construction – “up to 4,288 fewer jobs each year on average” if negative gearing was removed, and a further 3,000-plus if CGT changes came into force.

It warned that while falling prices may offer short-term relief for buyers, the longer-term outlook was more severe.

“The combination of the increased cost base and the contraction in supply of residential rentals puts upward pressure on rental prices,” it warned, a figure set at a rise of up to 2.4 per cent more than business-as-usual by the end of the decade.

Economic impacts of removing CGT discounts for residential property. Source: Master Builders Australia, Housing Industry Association, Property Council of Australia and Real Estate Institute of Australia.

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The report comes a week after the Australian Senate concluded its committee work finding the CGT discount “can distort investment decisions”, pushing money into existing housing and speculative assets instead of productive investment. The federal government is due to announce its decision over any changes via the May Budget process.