A leading property expert believes Jacinta Allan’s government’s hard stance on real estate could be holding back price growth. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images.
Melbourne has as many as 30 up-and-coming suburbs that could be on their way to joining the city’s million-dollar housing club within a year.
But it could hinge on the November state election, with at least one prominent property pundit claiming Jacinta Allan’s was the “worst state government in the country” when it comes to real estate.
Briar Hill and Botanic Ridge are both $15,000 or less short of their median house price hitting the $1m mark.
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PropTrack stats show that in both cases, if they achieve the same level of growth in the year ahead as they did in the past 12 months, both will comfortably be $1m suburbs by June 2027.
Meanwhile typical prices for houses in Altona North and Taylors Lakes, as well as units in Camberwell and Black Rock are all at $980,000 — with enough price growth in the past year to suggest that they too could imminently climb into the seven-figure club.
Separate analysis by financial services firm Reventon and real estate analysis and research website Hotspotting shows Botanic Ridge is the area most likely to next join Victoria’s current list of 215 suburbs with a $1m-plus typical price for houses.
40 Belcello St, Botanic Ridge, is for sale at $929,000-$999,000 — showing just how close the suburb’s homes are to the $1m mark.
Their data showsanother 12 suburbs have units that are also typically worth $1m or more.
The analysis shows that in the past year typical house prices in 29 Victorian suburbs climbed past the $1m mark, including Airport West, now $1.01m, Gisborne, $1m, and Watsonia, $1.01m.
Reventon chief executive Chris Christofi said the data showed that, despite broad expectations of a market slow down, there were a number of areas that were still gaining ground.
Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said Melbourne was facing a “period of great uncertainty” amid rising interest rates, conflict in the Middle East and the federal budget – and it was hard to be sure when home price rises would resume adding to the city’s $1m club.
But the respected property pundit said many suburbs’ fortunes would hinge heavily on November’s Victorian election.
Melbourne’s Next $1m House Suburbs
| Suburb | Type | Median Today | 2025 Median | Projected median, 2027 |
| Briar Hill | H | $988,500 | $970,000 | $1,007,282 |
| Botanic Ridge | H | $985,000 | $895,000 | $1,084,485 |
| Altona North | H | $980,000 | $919,500 | $1,044,680 |
| Taylors Lakes | H | $980,000 | $920,000 | $1,043,700 |
| Croydon | H | $966,000 | $885,000 | $1,054,872 |
| Watsonia North | H | $961,000 | $870,000 | $1,061,905 |
| Gowanbrae | H | $960,000 | $880,000 | $1,047,360 |
| Bayswater | H | $960,000 | $880,000 | $1,047,360 |
| Keysborough | H | $960,000 | $920,000 | $1,001,280 |
| Chirnside Park | H | $953,775 | $851,000 | $1,069,182 |
| Reservoir | H | $950,000 | $900,000 | $1,003,200 |
Projected price assumes local house median value will rise in line with past year’s growth.
Source: PropTrack
“At the start of the year Melbourne looked like it would be moving strongly into recovery mode this year; things have changed,” Mr Ryder said.
“But in terms of property markets growing in Melbourne, what they need more than anything else is a change of state government as the state government is not particularly friendly to real estate markets or investors.
“It’s the worst state government in the country, and in some ways it feels like the worst state government ever, as far as real estate goes.
“So that would be a catalyst to property growth.”
PropTrack economist Luc Redman said interest rates would have a significant influence on whether suburbs rose past the $1m mark, as would the property tax changes announced in May’s federal budget.
The four-bedroom house at 5 Merrick St, Keysborough, is listed with $865,000-$950,000 hopes. In the future it is likely to be among those worth more than $1m.
“Combined, they will lead to a weakening of growth, particularly at the edge of the $1m market,” Mr Redman said.
He noted that his firm was still in the camp that rate cuts would not occur until 2027 at the earliest, and that undesirable consumer price index numbers released this week could even suggest a further rate rise was still ahead.
However, the economist said in Melbourne a $950,000 cap on the federal government’s 5 per cent first home deposit support scheme could lead to enough activity in the bottom half of a suburb’s market that it would help elevate it to a $1m area.
“There are buyers in the market now who know that is their upper limit,” Mr Redman said.
“And you might see buyers with slightly budgets, with a 20 per cent deposit, will be able to go higher and above the $950,000 mark.”
Melbourne’s Next $1m Unit Suburbs
| Suburb | Median Today | 2025 Median | Projected median, 2027 |
| Camberwell | $980,000 | $882,500 | $1,088,780 |
| Black Rock | $980,000 | $955,000 | $1,005,480 |
| Blackburn South | $970,000 | $850,000 | $1,106,770 |
| Vermont South | $952,000 | $830,000 | $1,091,944 |
| Toorak | $950,000 | $895,500 | $1,007,950 |
| Surrey Hills | $945,000 | $870,000 | $1,026,270 |
| Templestowe | $935,500 | $849,000 | $1,030,921 |
| Kew East | $935,000 | $855,000 | $1,022,890 |
| Caulfield South | $927,500 | $811,000 | $1,061,060 |
| Briar Hill | $881,025 | $761,000 | $1,020,227 |
Projected price assumes local unit median value will rise in line with past year’s growth.
Source: PropTrack
While he would not comment on whether a change of government would impact the housing market,Mr Redman said if the Victorian election led to policy offers of first-home buyer stamp duty support being raised to $950,000 in line with the federal scheme, that could compound demand at that level.
“You could see a bring-forward in demand, and we are still seeing that playing out in the market at the moment,” he said.
McGrath agent Leo Widjaja said it really felt like Botanic Ridge wasn’t far off andcould hit the $1m median by the year’s end, despite headwinds.
“You can’t really get anything under the $850,000 mark now for a house,” Mr Widjaja said.
“And once the market recovers I don’t see any problem with it becoming a seven-digit median.”
A $900,000-$950,000 budget would buy you a home like 86 Evans Drive in Croydon, but for how much longer experts aren’t sure.
The agent said the area was attracting buyers from young families to middle-aged locals and even downsizers from other parts of the city moving there to be closer to family — or the area’s enviable golf courses.
“And Melbourne is long overdue for a boom of the market,” he said.
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