For the last few years, many homeowners have felt like they were holding a winning hand, a two to three percent mortgage rate that seemed too good to ever give up. And honestly, who could blame them? Those rates were historic. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate fell below 3 percent in 2020 and 2021, a level that has only occurred briefly in United States history and has since more than doubled, with rates hovering in the low to mid 6 percent range through late 2025.
But as we move toward 2026, the conversation is shifting. More homeowners are realizing that holding onto a low rate indefinitely may no longer be the winning strategy it once seemed. Instead of asking, “What rate am I giving up?” they are starting to ask a more important question: “Does my home still fit my life?”
Why the lock In effect Is finally fading
Between 2020 and 2022, many homeowners locked in mortgage rates well below 4 percent, creating a powerful lock in effect. Even those who needed more space, wanted a different layout, or faced family changes hesitated to move, fearing higher payments.
But markets evolve, and so do people.
Mortgage rates have stabilized, inventory has slowly improved, and homeowners are reframing the decision. Instead of focusing solely on the rate they would leave behind, many are evaluating whether their current home still aligns with their lifestyle and long term goals. That shift in mindset is unlocking movement.
Life changes are driving housing decisions again
One of the healthiest indicators in any housing market is when decisions are driven by life, not fear. That is increasingly the case in Las Vegas.
Growing families are running out of space. Retirees are ready to simplify. Divorce, blended households, and multi generational living arrangements are reshaping housing needs. We are also seeing homeowners relocating to care for aging parents who are moving to Southern Nevada.
Many of these decisions were put on hold over the last few years. Now, as the market steadies, quality of life priorities are taking center stage again, and for many homeowners, the long term benefits of Las Vegas still outweigh short term rate concerns. In the Las Vegas Valley, this shift is reflected in slower sales tempos and longer days on market compared to the peak frenzy years, signaling a market that is adjusting rather than stalling.
Work flexibility keeps Las Vegas competitive
Las Vegas continues to benefit from inbound migration, particularly from California, the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Midwest. Remote and hybrid work models have given buyers more freedom to choose where they live, and Southern Nevada remains attractive for its relative affordability, tax advantages, and lifestyle.
At the same time, local homeowners are making more strategic moves within the valley, relocating closer to work, schools, or family as employers refine return to office expectations. This steady, intentional movement is helping support a more balanced market.
Inventory and incentives are easing the fear factor
For a long time, the biggest hesitation was not selling, it was buying the next home. That fear is beginning to fade.
Active inventory has improved meaningfully from the extreme lows of 2021 and 2022. Local market reports show Las Vegas housing supply is up year over year, giving buyers more options and reducing the pressure to rush into decisions. Builders are still offering incentives, and traditional sellers are increasingly willing to help with closing costs or concessions if a home sits on the market. These adjustments are making move up purchases more attainable than many homeowners realize.
The result is more confidence, fewer rushed decisions, and a market that feels more navigable.
Accepting the new rate reality
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Two to three percent mortgage rates were a once in a generation event. More homeowners are accepting that waiting indefinitely for their return may mean waiting forever.
Instead, many are adopting a smarter mindset. Make the move when it fits your life and plan strategically for refinancing opportunities if rates improve in the future. That shift alone is unlocking movement.
Giving up a low rate can feel like a loss. But as time passes, that emotional barrier is weakening. Homeowners are recognizing that staying in the wrong home too long can limit flexibility, comfort, and future opportunity.
Equity Is the quiet power player
One of the biggest enablers of movement is equity.
Strong appreciation over the past several years has created meaningful equity for many homeowners. That equity can be used to increase down payments, reduce monthly payments, pay off higher interest debt, or bridge the gap between selling and buying.
In many cases, it is not today’s interest rate that makes a move possible, it is the equity built over time.
A market moving toward balance
Not every segment of the market moves at the same pace. Entry level and mid priced homes tend to gain traction first, while higher priced properties may take longer due to a smaller buyer pool. That is normal, and it reinforces why neighborhood level data matters more than national headlines.
Looking ahead, 2026 has the potential to represent true market normalization. Not a boom. Not a bust. Just balance, steadier pricing, improved inventory, more predictable financing options, and decisions driven by life instead of fear.
For homeowners who have been waiting for the right moment, that balance may finally be the signal they have been looking for.
Tim Deibert is the President of note. A Mortgage Agency, which boasts 29 years of expertise in the Las Vegas real estate market.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: [email protected].
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