Winter is one of the best times to buy a home in Melbourne, but the best time to sell might not be spring, contrary to popular belief. Picture: Jason Edwards.
Thousands of Melbourne home sellers are shoving their “head in the sand” every spring, amid shock new data showing the most profitable time to sell is March.
Real estate experts are second-guessing the city’s “archaic” traditions and warning consistently flooding the market at the same time each year is actually helping buyers.
Ray White economics team analysis of sales for the past decade show that the highest monthly median prices for houses and units across the city are set during autumn, with price gaps in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and even millions for elite suburbs like Toorak, when compared to their lowest ebb in other months.
RELATED: $36m blow to super fund-backed ISPT could hit Aussie retirements
National Housing Accord up to 60,000 new homes short in first year
Huge blow for Australia’s housing crisis
It’s also revealed that July is one of the best times to buy a home, with median prices this month historically at their most affordable in 108 suburbs.
It narrowly outpaces January, when it’s the best time to buy in 96 suburbs, however Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said with a number of other suburbs recording their second or third lowest medians in January over the timeline, it was overall the most affordable month to buy a home in.
While sellers in both months are likely to be very motivated to lock in a deal, potentially explaining the typically lower prices, Ms Conisbee said spring could also easily work in buyers’ favour — especially for buyers who made a move before expected rate cuts drive prices up much further.
SEE WHEN THE BEST TIME TO BUY AND SELL HOMES IS IN YOUR AREA.
“Spring is a time when we see so much stock coming to the market, which is great for buyers – but for sellers it’s far more competition,” she said.
“Even so, I would be starting to search right about now.
“That’s also because rate cuts are coming, and we know as they do we will get more and more competition from buyers.”
A three-bedroom Werribee house sold for $510,000 in February, one of the best times of the year to sell in the suburb, according to the new Ray White analysis.
Ray White Group chief economist, Nerida Conisbee, believes it might be time for Melburnians to reconsider spring as the selling season.
For those thinking of selling a home, the economist warned the high numbers of homes for sale in spring could be a reason to reconsider.
“On average, it does seem to be the autumn months that are better for prices,” Ms Conisbee said.
“Maybe it’s time to rethink selling season.
“It’s definitely well worth considering selling outside of spring because of the competition.”
Professional auctioneer Andy Reid said a rethink was urgently needed by Melbourne home sellers.
“Summer and autumn have become the new spring; you launch in summer, in February, and sell in March,” Mr Reid said.
“Everyone has their head in the sand. Melbourne is the most archaic capital city when it comes to selling real estate.”
An Eltham home with a four-bedroom floorplan that sold for $1.575m in July, 2024, historically the best time of year to sell homes in the northeastern suburb.
Apollo Auctions Victoria director and auctioneer Andy Reid believes many of the home sellers clinging to spring sales have their ‘head in the sand’ and could make life easier for buyers.
He warned the city’s obsession with auctioning homes at 11am on Saturday was also likely hurting sellers.
“You are putting your auction in the middle of the most productive day for any working family, so they have no time to do anything at the start of the day and then no real time to do anything proper in the afternoon.”
That causes friction, which can cause some buyers who might have bid to be forced to choose between that and family events, their children’s sporting commitments and their social life.
Midweek auctions and those held earlier on Saturdays, at 9.30am, reduced that friction and could suit buyers better.
“We are clinging to a mentality that’s stuck in the 90s,” he said.
“This is probably all working out in favour of the buyers, but with an asterisk — because it’s still not fully convenient for them.
“We’re adding friction to sales and that reduces competition, which the seller doesn’t want, but a motivated buyer does.”
This three-bedroom Williamstown house sold for $1.645m last October, the best time to sell homes in the suburb, according to new analysis.
But it’s possible the sellers of this Caroline Springs home could have given buyers a stronger position by doing so in September, surprisingly one of the best times to buy in the suburb.
The auctioneer added that for buyers who were willing to move against the crowd, there were reasons that others avoided midwinter and midsummer.
“In January, everyone has spent all their pennies on Santa, and in July everyone is waiting for their tax return to come through and boost their deposit,” Mr Reid said.
He added that by maintaining the status quo, home sellers were effectively playing into the hands of home buyers.
Cohen Handler buyer’s advocate Nicole Jacobs said while buyers shouldn’t pass over the right property in the hopes of timing a purchase, there were definitely times of year that gave them the upper hand.
“Now is a really good time to buy, and six months ago was a really good time, too,” Ms Jacobs said.
“But I wouldn’t be waiting to January. You will be getting a few interest rate cuts between now and then.”
For those considering selling, the buyer’s agent said the core reason for a spring timeline was for homes that had a reason for doing so – which many don’t today.
May has emerged as the surprise best time to sell homes in Vermont South, with this address scoring $1.556m during the course of the month this year.
Cohen Handler Victoria managing director Nicole Jacobs, is also among those questioning the spring selling season’s supremacy for Melbourne.
“If you do have a botanic garden in your backyard, you’d be crazy not to sell when it is at its peak,” she said.
“You may think you need to wait for spring, but if you don’t have much of a garden, why?”
She also noted that home sellers should be aware agents would try to time their sale to suit their calendar, and workflow – and not necessarily work in their best interests.
“If the agent doesn’t have a lot of other listings going, they will try to persuade the seller to do so now, rather than wait,” she said.
While she said she did traditionally buy a lot of homes in spring, when volumes of homes for sales were typically higher, December was also a good time to “mop up” a lot of the properties that had struggled in the prior months.
But not every suburb struggles at the same time, Eltham is among the 12 Melbourne suburbs that defy the odds and score the best results in July — when 108 others are historically at their lowest level.
Jellis Craig Eltham director Tom Kurtschenko said he wasn’t overly surprised, having worked solidly through winter for the past 20 years – despite agents in many other areas heading off on holiday when the weather cools.
While this Essendon three bedder sold in April, a time that favours lower priced sales, period properties can often outperform at any time of year.
In Sunbury, one of the beast times of year to buy a home is January – when this four-bedroom house sold for $900,000.
“We like the winter months … though ideally you wouldn’t book an auction on the key weeks of school holidays,” Mr Kurtschenko said.
“And, in spring, there can be a lot more choice for buyers.”
He added that at the moment he was seeing a lot of people in the area looking to buy a home before selling, noting that the market would support that approach for many as prices rose.
Loan Market broker Jacob Decru said there had been a surge in homebuyers seeking home approval in the past quarter, with large numbers now ready to go — and more on the way.
While that could be good news for home sellers thinking about spring, Mr Decru said many of those looking to buy were hoping to make a move in July or August to beat any future rate rises that might drive prices up.
“The sentiment among buyers now is that it’s a good time to buy,” he said.
Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox.
MORE: Inside Vic’s $2bn housing shake up
Toorak: $30m+ health-boosting mansion sold to overseas-based buyer
English (US) · 