What the Fed’s Rate Cut Means for the Housing Market and Inflation

October 3, 2024 by Mark Ferguson

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates more than expected. This is the first rate cut in four years, and it could significantly impact the housing market, inflation, and the broader economy. Let’s dive into what this means for real estate, inflation, and more.

Video: Will the Fed Interest Rate Cut Increase Housing Prices?

High Interest Rates and Inflation: A Misconception?

For years, I’ve advocated for cutting interest rates and argued against raising them. While many believe high interest rates help control inflation, I think they might do the opposite—and definitely don’t help with housing affordability. Studies suggest that high rates raise mortgage payments, making housing more expensive, not less.

A common belief is that high rates will force housing prices down, but I argue that high rates might actually make the situation worse by reducing supply. Fewer homes are built when borrowing costs are high, and existing homeowners are reluctant to sell, waiting for lower rates. This supply shortage pushes prices up, not down.

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What the Fed Rate Cut Means for Mortgage Rates

The Fed’s interest rate decisions don’t directly affect mortgage rates, but they are closely related. The Fed sets the federal funds rate, which is what banks pay to borrow from each other. Mortgage rates, on the other hand, are determined by the bond market and overall economic conditions.

Typically, when the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates also drop. But the relationship isn’t always linear. As we’ve seen recently, mortgage rates have been all over the place. Earlier this year, they were above 7%, but now they’ve dropped to around 5.7% for a 30-year mortgage, according to NerdWallet. That’s a significant drop, which makes homes more affordable by lowering borrowing costs.

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Could Lower Rates Boost Housing Demand?

Lower rates could trigger a surge in homebuying. Many renters and homeowners have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for rates to drop. When they do, these buyers may jump back into the market, driving prices up. We could see a short-term price increase due to a spike in demand.

However, lower rates also make it easier to build new homes. Increased construction would boost supply, potentially stabilizing prices over time. Currently, there’s a significant housing shortage, and more building is necessary to meet demand. So while prices may rise in the short term, more construction will help create a more balanced housing market in the long run.

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The Argument for Lower Rates Stabilizing the Market

Some people argue that lowering rates will bring more homes onto the market, as current homeowners who have been holding off on selling will finally list their properties. This could increase supply, but those same sellers are also buyers. So, while more homes might come on the market, there will still be buyers ready to snatch them up, including renters who have been waiting for a better deal.

In fact, with more buyers than sellers, we could see even higher demand than supply, leading to an imbalance favoring buyers. Lower rates, combined with strong demand from immigrants and other demographics, could lead to a more pronounced housing boom.

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Job Growth, Immigration, and Housing Demand

Another factor driving housing demand is immigration. Recently, there’s been significant job growth, but most of it has been among foreign-born workers. Data from the Census and the Social Security Administration shows a substantial increase in employment for foreign-born individuals, while employment for native-born workers has decreased. With more immigrants entering the workforce, housing demand is likely to rise, adding pressure to the housing market.

Many predict that population declines will lead to a housing crash, especially as baby boomers age. However, immigration is offsetting those declines. The U.S. population is still growing, which means more demand for housing, both for homeownership and rentals. Coupled with lower interest rates, this could result in continued upward pressure on home prices.

Why High Rates Don’t Necessarily Lower Prices

There’s a misconception that raising interest rates automatically leads to lower prices, whether for housing or goods. While higher rates can reduce demand, they also reduce supply, which can keep prices elevated. Fewer homes are built, fewer people sell their homes, and businesses cut back on production. In the housing market, this stagnation leads to a supply-demand mismatch, propping up prices rather than reducing them.

Studies from the 1970s and 1980s, when interest rates were at their highest, show that housing prices still rose dramatically. In fact, during the 1970s, prices tripled, and in the 1980s, they doubled. High rates simply don’t curb housing prices as much as people think.

Do Higher Rates Actually Cause Inflation?

Another controversial idea is that high rates can lead to inflation. Many people think raising rates controls inflation by reducing demand, but it doesn’t consider the supply side. When borrowing costs are high, businesses slow down production, which reduces supply. This supply contraction can lead to higher prices for goods and services, as companies are forced to raise prices to cover their costs.

For example, I own a small business. If my costs increase due to higher interest rates, I can’t just lower my prices to compensate for reduced demand. I still need to cover my fixed costs, so I might raise prices instead. This is how high interest rates can cause prices to rise, counterintuitively contributing to inflation rather than reducing it.

Conclusion: Why Lower Rates Are Good for the Economy

In summary, I believe lower interest rates are better for the economy and the housing market. Lower rates encourage building, make borrowing cheaper, and can help stabilize housing prices in the long run. While some fear that lowering rates will cause prices to surge, the alternative—keeping rates high—only prolongs the problem by restricting supply.

Additionally, the data shows that high rates don’t automatically lead to lower prices and, in some cases, can even cause inflation. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how the Fed’s rate cuts impact the economy and the housing market in the months to come.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments below!