Greater Toronto real estate developers found no relief from the market rut in May. BILD GTA and Altus Group data shows new home sales hit a record low in May, marking an 8th month of historically weak demand. Even though just a handful of new homes sold in a city of millions, sellers have been resistant to cutting prices further. The million-dollar question, $1.5m in May, is how long can prices remain sticky now that there are more than 17 months of inventory on hand.
Greater Toronto Home Prices Plunge, Condo Prices Trade Sideways
Source: Altus Group.
Greater Toronto new home prices are still trending lower, but one segment showed signs of firming. The price of a single-family fell 1.6% (-$24.6k) to $1.51 million in May, bringing prices 6.6% (-$107.3k) lower than last year. Since hitting a record high in 2022, the single-family benchmark has dropped more than 20% and is back to where it was in 2021. Even with the correction, prices are still double where they were 10 years ago, highlighting just how aggressive gains had become.
Condo apartments saw some relief from declines with prices actually rising 0.2% (+$2.2k) to $1.02 million in May. They remain 2.2% (-$23.4k) lower than last year, and over 20% below the record high reached in 2022. It’s worth considering the slight price increase occurred on extremely low sales volumes, indicating it may be methodology noise over actual firming. We’ll circle back to this in a moment.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales Hit A Record Low In May
Greater Toronto new home sales for the month of May.
Source: Altus Group.
Greater Toronto new home sales hit a record low—for an 8th consecutive month. Developers sold just 345 new homes in May 2025, down 64% from last year and 87% below the 10-year average. This is mind-boggling for a region estimated to have 7.1 million people, and a good reminder to consider estimate methodology.
Condo apartments have seen demand erode much faster than larger, single-family homes. Greater Toronto developers saw just 137 condo sales in May, down 74% from last year and 93% below the 10-year average for the month. Single-family homes did slightly better with 208 homes sold, down 53% from last year and 74% below the 10-year average.
Overall, it’s been an incredibly slow year. The region saw just 1,965 new home sales in the first five months of the year, down 51% compared to last year—also considered a slow year. It was the slowest year-to-date sales for May on record, and shaping up to be the slowest year in the region’s history.
Toronto Says It Needs 20k+ New Condos Per Year, Only Sold 42 In May…Not 42k, Just 42 Units
The City of Toronto’s suggestion that tens of thousands of condos need to be built is looking comically absurd. Developers in the City of Toronto sold just 42 new condo apartments in May, down 69% from last year—also considered a slow year. To give context to just how slow this is, May 2025 sales are 97.4% lower than May 2021. That’s not even compared to a record year like 2017.
As for single-family homes, developers only sold 6 new units in May, down 66.7% from last year. It’s a cute niche market at this price point, but failing an unlikely simultaneous combo of falling rates, a significant correction, and an economic boom—it’s hard to see the market suddenly shift on this segment. But we love to be surprised!
Greater Toronto New Home Sales Saw Highest May Inventory Since 2016
Greater Toronto real estate inventory continued to climb against weak sales. There were 21.6k units for sale at the end of May, up 1.0% from a month prior and 5.6% above last year. It marks the most GTA inventory for May going back to 2016—almost a decade ago.
There are about 17 months of inventory at this level. Experts generally believe six or more months of inventory is a buyer’s (or bear) market where the market is considered oversupplied. This is where prices are expected to fall to balance the supply and demand.
Non-market actions to preserve prices such as increased leverage and blanket appraisals may temporarily provide a sentiment backstop. However, it creates other, more critical market inefficiencies in other parts of the economy. Eventually, this can create an even sharper, more drastic blow to a region than policymakers had been hoping to avoid.
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