Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Mortgage Impairments Surge: Homeowner Or Investor Trouble?
Canadian mortgage impairments are surging. New Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows mortgage impairment in Q1 2025 climbed 65% since 2022, despite the best job market in history occurring in the middle of this surge. The data may be even worse than stated, as it excluded medium-sized banks that cater to higher-risk clients. However, the most important detail in all of this data is missing—who’s falling behind on payments? Without determining this critical detail, policy to address the issue may be a bailout for overextended investors, masquerading as help for families.
Canadian Real Estate Slump Deepens: RBC Warns No Rebound In Sight
The Canadian real estate downturn is going to get worst before it gets better. That was the take from RBC this week, who warned investors that the tariff has created a drag on buyers, despite motivating more sellers to list. Even the markets that escaped the slowdown from higher rates have been unable to avoid the sentiment erosion from a trade war. The bank’s economists don’t see the problem easing until clarity on the trade issue is firm, and even then it may not restore confidence quickly.
Canadian International Student Shift: Guinea Surpasses China, Indian Demand Crashes
Canada has long been an attractive choice for international students, but why it’s a choice is shifting. The relatively small West African nation of Guinea is now the third-largest source of study permit applications. It surpassed China, a country literally 100x larger and Canada’s primary source of study permit applications until 2018. A remarkable accomplishment considering Guinea was an insignificant source of applications until after its 2021 military coup. Meanwhile, Chinese students have shifted to countries known for higher quality of education, according to experts. Canada’s postsecondary system is no longer known for quality, so much as it has acquired a reputation as an immigration hack.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Fall Below $1M, Sales At 90s Crash Levels
Greater Toronto real estate prices are still falling, with a typical home in the City now less than $1 million. Excluding the first month of the 2020 lockdowns, Toronto just printed the worst demand since the 1990s real estate bubble popping. At the same time, inventory for the month climbed to the highest level in more than a decade. Prices are now much lower than they were at peak, the City is effectively a very different market than it was pre-2020. Toronto real estate used to be attractive because it has one of the best job markets in the country. It may be cheaper these days, but will buyers return if they’re not buying into the same environment?
Canada’s Best Province For Graduates To Find A Job? Definitely Not Ontario
Students flocking to Ontario for opportunity are in for a big surprise: It’s a terrible place to find work. Only 76% of Ontario graduates were able to find a job in a related field within 3 years of graduation. In contrast, other provinces like Quebec (90%), Saskatchewan (85%), and Alberta (85%) have much higher student success rates. Making the problem even worse is the fact that Ontario is seeing its rate slip, as the province loses more and more young people to Western Canada.
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