Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Big Six Mortgage Arrears Surge Above National Average
Mortgage arrears at Canada’s Big Six banks are rising faster than the national average, with five of the six now exceeding it. These lenders typically post much lower delinquency rates, making the sudden surge a potential early warning of deeper financial stress.
Toronto Real Estate’s Long-Term Prospects Fade As Unemployment Nears 400k
A faster recovery for Toronto real estate looks unlikely as the job market deteriorates. The region saw 392.3k unemployed in August, up 11.1% year-over-year—now accounting for over 1 in 5 of Canada’s unemployed. Toronto CMA now contains cities with the highest unemployment rates in the country.
How Canada’s Population Growth Hid Its Rising Household Debt Burden
Canada’s household debt improvements were mostly smoke and mirrors. The debt-to-income ratio began falling in 2021, but that was due to surging population growth boosting income faster than debt, not deleveraging. With growth now slowing, the ratio is rising again, with the latest quarter marking the third consecutive advance.
Canadians Are Less Satisfied With Life—Which Province Is Worst?
Canadians are feeling worse about life, especially in Alberta and Ontario. StatCan data shows life satisfaction held above 90% until 2021, but plunged to 77% by Q2 2025. Alberta scored lowest at 6.6/10, while Ontario and BC tied at 6.8—the second lowest. The data is just the latest in a recent flood undercutting the popular narrative of growing national confidence.
Bank of Canada To Make 3 Interest Rate Cuts Before Spring 2026: BMO
BMO expects the Bank of Canada to begin cutting rates this month, forecasting three cuts (75 bps) by Spring 2026. But they caution that sticky inflation could derail that call, with one more CPI report before the decision that could shift the outlook quickly.
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