Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canada’s Mortgage Delinquency Surge Now Resembles US Housing Crash
Canadian mortgage delinquencies are climbing in an unexpected segment. Mortgages over $850k hit a 0.52% delinquency rate in Q3 2025, more than double the 0.24% rate for mortgages under $200k. Over two years, large mortgages have seen delinquencies climb 147.6%, nearly tripling and outpacing traditional risk segments. This is risk inversion—a rare pattern that precedes major economic shocks, such as the US housing collapse in 2008.
Canadian Unemployment Hits Recession Levels, Private Sector Stalls
Canada lost 84k jobs in February, as full-time losses more than offset a minor boost in part-time gigs. The same data revealed something grimmer: private sector job creation has stalled, and unemployment has spiked to recession-era levels. Workers are now competing in a market where the government is the only net creator of jobs.
Canadian Building Intentions Surge, Mostly Government Spending
Building permits hit $13.3 billion in January, a 4.8% jump that looked stellar until inflation adjustment erased most gains. In real terms, permit dollar volume remains lower than just a few years ago. The non-residential growth appeared positive, but it’s dominated by taxpayer-funded projects—another sign that real commercial growth is stalling.
Canada’s Rental Bubble Moves East: Halifax Nears Toronto Prices
Canada is seeing the national rental gradient flatten, as pricey markets correct and formerly affordable ones surge. In Vancouver, the price of a two-bedroom rental has dropped 13.7% to $3,090/month in Q4 2025. On the East Coast, Halifax landlords are now asking $2,260/month, 53.7% more than pre-pandemic—closing in on Toronto, an economy 15x larger. The flattening of price gradients across regions with vastly different fundamentals is a phenomenon called bubble contagion. Historically, it doesn’t end well.
Toronto Condos In Recession, Filled With Supply No One Wants: BMO
A BMO Capital Markets research note just shattered Toronto real estate investor hopes. Sales have fallen to multi-year lows while inventory has surged. Prices are now 25% below their early-2022 peak, enough to spark pent-up demand. Economists at the bank agree that demand will return (at some point), but it won’t be enough with the wave of inventory already in the pipeline.
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