Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Bank of Canada Downgrades Housing, Warns of Small Condo Glut
The Bank of Canada kept its key overnight rate at 2.25% at their April announcement, a widely expected move. What wasn’t expected was a downgrade in their housing forecast, which saw the largest cut of any segment. The Bank expects housing will reduce GDP growth by 0.1 points in 2026, slashing 0.3 points from its last forecast. They cite an oversupply of small condos in major cities as the primary reason.
Canada’s Rich Are Defaulting On Mortgages At 2x The Rate of Smaller Loans
Traditionally, smaller loans are the riskiest—but cause the least damage. Lenders plan risk mitigation around this fact, but that changed in Canada recently. The delinquency rate on large loans ($850k or greater) hit 0.55% in Q4 2025, more than double the 0.24% rate on the smallest. Larger loans first surpassed smaller ones in 2022 in a rare phenomenon called risk inversion. Risk inversion is a prerequisite for a financial crisis, as the highest-quality loans begin to give out first.
Canadian Business Closures Surge, 1 In 20 Shutter In A Month
Roughly 46,900 businesses shuttered in January, about 1 in 20 in Canada. The abrupt surge marks the third-highest monthly closure counts since the pandemic started. Openings also fell short of offsetting losses, leaving just 936,200 active businesses. Over two years of growth were wiped out in a single month.
Nearly 1 In 19 Greater Toronto Rental Units Sit Vacant—More On The Way
The shortage of rentals across Greater Toronto is officially a thing of the past. The region’s rental vacancy rate climbed to 5.4% in Q1 2026, the highest rate since 2021. Availability, vacancies plus units soon to be vacant, climbed to a record 8.0%. While the face value of prices hasn’t dropped much, the majority now offer incentives. The strategy to dismiss the glut may not hold up much longer, as a record inflow of supply is expected this year.
Canadian GDP Grew, Most Industries Did Not—Credit Rises, While Jobs Fall
Real GDP advanced by 0.2% in February, marking a fourth consecutive month of growth. That sounds great until one realizes only 8 out of 20 industries are actually growing. Out of those that did grow, the leaders were driven by delayed activity and credit expansion. To put it bluntly, the growth is borrowed activity from other periods.
Canada Ramps Up Temporary Visa Approvals Despite Fading Demand
New immigration policies to tame the record population are being eased, but so is demand. Canada approved 295,055 temporary resident visas in February, up 12.1% from last year. It marks the third-highest February on record, as a processing backlog is cleared. However, new applications fell 5% from last year to 366,025, 28% below the 2024 record. Canada has been quietly ramping up immigration again, but global demand has faded.
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