Buyer’s agents Elsja and Andrew Hancock said areas around southern Sydney are undervalued. Picture: Richard Dobson
Explosive property market inflation has created pockets of Sydney where house prices have become “overvalued” and at risk of soon falling as buyers seek out cheaper, comparable homes elsewhere.
This has coincided with the emergence of contrasting city areas where the opposite conditions have emerged: prices are undervalued relative to neighbours, demand is picking up and “catch up growth” is imminent, new data shows.
The SuburbData analysis exposed varying levels of suburb price imbalances when comparing neighbouring areas offering similar houses, amenities and infrastructure.
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Undervalued suburbs were deemed good areas to buy in because prices could soon grow, while overvalued areas posed risks for new buyers, who were in danger of overcapitalising on their purchases.
The research showed prices in the most “overvalued” suburbs were up to $250,000 higher than nearby, similar areas – often after years of rampant growth that outpaced the rest of the surrounding market.
Such price gaps were unsustainable, according to the SuburbData research, with buyer demand now showing signs of dropping while the supply of available properties was rising.
These factors pointed to a coming market adjustment that would result in prices stagnating for many years, or even falling, raising risks for new buyers, the study revealed.
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Market cycles mean some suburbs may be peaking while others are due some catch up growth, reflected by recent, strong auction bidding. Picture: Sam Ruttyn
SuburbData analyst Jeremy Sheppard said a suburb being undervalued or overvalued was down to market cycle timing and the balance of supply and demand, among other things.
“Buyers are continually searching for value for money,” he said. “One of the big mistakes people make is assuming growth will occur at a consistent rate over many years.
“It doesn’t work like that. Real estate moves in cycles. Buyers spot an opportunity to get better value for money in an (undervalued) market and that drives a feeding frenzy. Prices then go up sharply.
“Rises will continue until buyers reach the stage where they no longer see value … It’s at that peak when the market is generally overvalued.”
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Source: SuburbData; based on demand to supply ratio, market cycle timing and neighbourhood price differences.
Areas ranked among the 20 most overvalued Sydney markets were a mix of suburbs spread across the greater city area.
They included developing suburbs around the coming Western Sydney airport, such as Rossmore and Bringelly, which have attracted ample speculative investment over recent years.
Overvalued suburbs also included outer suburbs dominated by acreages and semirural properties, such as Mulgoa and Orchard Hills, south of Penrith and Ellis Lane, in the Camden area.
Prices in these fringe areas were elevated during the pandemic due to increased buyer demand for spacey properties, but these areas have historically appealed to more niche buyers, with recent indicators of demand beginning to fall.
There were also parts of the Pittwater region in Sydney’s upper northern beaches deemed overvalued, including Great Mackerel Beach, Whale Beach and Clareville.
Source: SuburbData
These too were hot markets during the pandemic and the years that followed, attracting a string of “lifestyle” buyers wanting more space and quieter coastal settings – only demand has now dropped and property supply is rising, suggesting prices may have peaked.
Undervalued suburbs, where growth has been stunted over a few years and conditions have since picked up, included a string of relatively affordable areas around Strathfield and Greater Parramatta.
The suburbs were Homebush West, Dundas Valley, Wentworthville, Liberty Grove and Granville, among others.
Parts of the south were also considered undervalued, such as Sutherland Shire suburb Jannali and, in the southern Canterbury-Bankstown area, Revesby and Revesby Heights.
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Jeremy Sheppard of Suburb Trends said it was a mistake for home seekers and investors to assume suburbs that outperformed the market would continue to do so.
Buyer’s agent Andrew Hancock of My Property Pro has sourced deals for numerous families wanting to purchase in these southern areas and said most were coming from more expensive regions like the inner west.
“There is a perception that there is better value on offer and these buyers often have higher paying jobs and bigger budgets and that’s pushing up the prices,” he said.
“An area like Revesby has homes that are a lot cheaper than suburbs further to the south like Kirrawee, but they offer something a bit similar. It is undervalued and these types of areas do catch up.”
Other undervalued suburbs were in the inner west, including Campsie, Newtown, Alexandria and Petersham.
Adrian William director Adrian Tsavalas said Newtown was excellent value at the moment, with lots of opportunities to get units at entry level prices.
Adrian Tsavalas, the director of inner west agency Adrian William, said Newtown was particularly good value at the moment.
“It’s always been a popular area and it has had various growth spikes in the past but when you compare it to other inner city suburbs like Glebe and Annandale, its excellent value,” he said.
“Units are a really good entry point into the area because they’ve remained really good value for the past five years.”
MOST OVERVALUED MARKETS:
Mulgoa, Maroubra, Maralya, Abbotsbury, Great Mackerel Beach, Orchard Hills, Ellis Lane, Arcadia, Horsley Park, Warrawee, Whale Beach, Bringelly, Clareville, Ingleside, Artarmon, Rossmore, La Perouse, Fiddletown, Rhodes, Bilgola Beach
MOST UNDERVALUED MARKETS:
Campsie, Homebush West, Cremorne, Schofields, Dundas Valley, Wentworthville, Revesby Beights, Liverpool, Parklea, Spring Farm, Petersham, Jannali, Newtown, Denham Court, Liberty Grove, Alexandria, Kurraba Point, Revesby, Granville, Zetland
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