A significant share of listings are old stock. Picture: Gaye Gerard
Old listings rarely garner serious attention in residential property market analysis.
Despite being overlooked by buyers, and most market analysts, these stale listings have a serious impact, in terms of elevating stock levels and also in price direction.
Buyers want the freshest of listings, and some even are prepared to pay buyers agents for access to that elusive must-have off market offering.
Sydney has 6300 unsold listings that have been on the market for 180 plus days, according to SQM’s Louis Christopher who closely monitors stock levels.
The old listings number is up 30 per cent on the same time last year.
Auction activity has been rising as more buyers funnel into the market. Picture: Sam Ruttyn
At the same time there’s been about a 4 per cent annual decline in new listings for the month of June with SQM calculating 12,700 new listings.
All up, Sydney buyers have a selection of 34,500 listings, so about 18 per cent of stock is stale.
Christopher notes rising old stock points to a mismatch between pricing and buyer appetite and capacity.
Sydney is “grappling with stale supply even as fresh listings taper off through the winter months,” Christopher advises.
Christopher regularly notes that older listings generally increase during market slowdowns or downturns.
It appears many Sydney vendors are wedded in their price hopes to past highs, while the cost-of-living pressures and still annoying high mortgage rates have constrained buyer enthusiasm.
Unless sold or withdrawn, the high number of homes that are languishing on the market will be an overhang of stock in the market as Sydney approaches the prospect of a bumper spring selling season.
The Sydney old listings tally is still well short of the record 10,000 in 2019, when total listings sat at their highest, almost 40,000, which provided buyers with a huge choice and probable stronger negotiating positions.
Buyer demand has been rising since RBA governor Michele Bullock announced cash rate cuts in May and February. Picture: Christian Gilles
Nationally SQM Research calculates more than 77,000 properties have sat on the market for six months or more, a 13.5 per cent jump year-on-year.
Among the state capitals, only Brisbane’s old listings are down year-on-year, in their case by seven per cent.
It is an international occurrence, too, with realtor.com calculating 24 per cent of stock in the United States was stale – the highest percentage since 2020.
Unrealistic price expectations are also leading to longer selling times, and fewer sales across Sydney. Mosman, the second most sought-after suburb searched by buyers last year on realestate.com.au, sits at 60 days on market median for its luxury houses.
SQM Research director Louis Christopher.
It is selling 15 days slower than July two years ago, according to PropTrack, and with just 200 sales in the past year, sales activity is well down on the 330-plus in peak year 2021.
The time to take a Bundeena sale has jumped from 57 days in July 2023 to its current 99 days on market.
Wilberforce’s median time on market sits at 81 days, up from 64 last July and 45 in July 2023.
At 38 days, Kings Langley houses are spending 19 days longer before their sale, double two years ago.
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