Canadians are packing up and leaving for good, and high home prices may be a major contributor. Last week we discussed Statistics Canada’s (Stat Can) emigration data showing 2025 saw one of the biggest Q1 outflows on record. Breaking that data down by province reveals the largest source of emigrants is Ontario. Combined with BC, the country’s two most expensive provinces are the source of more than 2 in 3 emigrants leaving Canada for good.
Canadians Are Leaving Permanently In Record Volumes
Emigration is when a citizen or permanent resident leaves the country for good, and Canada is seeing it scale up fast. As mentioned last week, Canada’s outflow hit 27.1k emigrants in Q1 2025, up 3% from last year. It was the second-largest Q1 outflow on record, only behind 2017. There’s been a distinct trend of emigration outflows rising since 2017, and the problem is only getting worse.
We won’t recap why emigration data is an important sentiment indicator. However, it’s worth mentioning that emigration requires notifying policymakers of the intention to permanently relocate outside of Canada. It’s probably fair to say a large volume of people are unaware they were supposed to declare their absence, and the government is just assuming they went on a long vacation.
This is the same problem that resulted in Canada significantly overestimating its population for roughly 40 years. But I digress, back to the provincial emigration data.
Most Canadians Leaving For Good Are From Ontario
Canadian Emigration By Province: The number of citizens or permanent residents in each province who relocated outside of Canada in Q1 2025.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Virtually all provinces have seen emigration outflows rise, but most came from Ontario. The province represented 50.8% of total emigration in Q1 2025—similar to last year, but a share roughly 5 points higher than observed in the 2010s. Ontario represents 38.8% of Canada’s population but 50.8% of emigration, indicating it’s overrepresented for outflows by 12 percentage points. This should be a major concern for local policymakers.
Ontario saw 13.6k emigrants in the quarter, up 3.0% from last year. It was the largest Q1 outflow on record. The province’s inability to retain talent is only compounded by the interprovincial outflows.
Canadians Are Leaving In Record Volumes: 70% Are From BC and Ontario
Canadian Emigration: Ontario and BC emigrants in the first quarter.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
A distant second is British Columbia (BC), representing 1 in 5 (20.4%) emigrants last quarter. The province’s 5.5k emigrants in Q1 2025 was 3.0% higher than last year. BC’s Q1 outflow is the second-largest in history, only behind 2017.
Over 1 In 5 Leaving Canada Are From Alberta and Quebec
Alberta was the third-largest source of emigrants, representing 12.1% of the national outflow. The province saw 3.3k people leave the country for good in Q1 2025, up 3.1% from the previous year. This was the third-largest Q1 outflow on record, with 2018 and 2022 being slightly larger. The share is similar to its share of the total population, so it doesn’t stand out as an issue.
With Canada’s youngest population, Alberta sees higher mobility among young adults—who are also the most likely to move for opportunity. At the same time, Alberta is the only province attracting young adults from other regions. The province is at the center of a complex demographic shift, which needs a further dive later.
Quebec’s share of emigration (10.2%) was the fourth-largest and growing. The province saw 3.3k emigrants in Q1 2025, an increase of 3.0% from last year. It was also the fourth-largest Q1 since the 80s, only surpassed by 2017, 2018, and 2022. Substantial growth but still nothing quite like the province’s outflows pre-1980. It’s also underrepresented, since Quebec’s total population represents 22% of the country’s population but only 10.2% of the emigration.
The Prairies Are Losing Canadians, But Mostly Alberta
Canada’s Prairie provinces represented 16.6% of emigration, but just 4.5% when Alberta is excluded. Manitoba represented 748 emigrants in Q1 2025, up 3.0% from last year. Saskatchewan represented 467 emigrants, up 2.9% over the same period. Until the steady uptick in recent months, both provinces hadn’t seen significant outflows since the 1960s. The most recent Q1 outflows were Manitoba’s second-largest since then, and Saskatchewan’s largest.
More Atlantic Canadians Are Leaving But It’s A Tiny Demographic
Atlantic Canada might be the only region happy (for now)—it collectively represented just 2.4% of emigration. Nova Scotia, which accounted for 51% of the region’s total, was the source of 333 emigrants in Q1 2025, up 2.5% from last year. Like most of Atlantic Canada, the region hadn’t seen significant emigration since the 1980s. However, Nova Scotia just saw the second-largest Q1 outflow since then—only 2018 was larger.
Collectively, the remaining provinces in Atlantic Canada barely register at the national scale—but may serve as a warning shot for local policymakers. New Brunswick saw 3.1% annual growth to 201 emigrants in Q1 2025, while PEI reported 4.1% growth to 51 emigrants over the same period. Nothing like pre-1980s emigration in these provinces, but it was the second-largest Q1 outflow for both provinces since then.
Last but not least was Newfoundland, whose emigration is growing faster than the national average but remains insignificant. The province saw just 60 emigrants in Q1 2025, an increase of 3.5% from last year. Newfoundland is home to 1.5% of Canada’s total population, but represents just 0.2% of its emigrants. Though with Canada’s oldest median-aged population, the vast majority of households are likely more established and less vulnerable to short-term economic shocks.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Likely A Major Contributor To Those Leaving For Good
There are various reasons that people leave the country, but the origin of emigrants suggests real estate plays a role. It’s not a coincidence that 70% of Canada’s emigrants came from two provinces—Ontario and BC. High-skill, young adults are most likely to leave as the combination of in-demand talent makes it easier to move, while the cost of living is motivating. These two provinces are also the only ones seeing its total population shrink, and are also the largest source of interprovincial migration—those relocating to another province.
The emigration surge may also explain the sudden lack of homebuying in both BC and Ontario. If consumers are being told that prices will never come down and they have to get used to small homes, many will just move. For many, moving to another province is a similar amount of effort as moving to a new country.
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