Mortgage rates fell and demand steadied as inventory dipped

Mortgage rates fell, demand stabilized and inventory had a noticeable decline last week. But are the changes in demand and inventory data about seasonality, or has the housing market changed with the recent mortgage rate decline? Let’s take a look at the weekend tracker and see what the data is telling us with rates falling the last three weeks. 10-year yield and mortgage rates In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75% The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60% What a crazy time in the bond market recently: the key level of 5.35% has not only held since early October, but the reversal has been truly nice to watch. The midterm elections, which changed the control of the House and Senate, have added another variable into the mortgage rate equation. I discussed what Congress can do to help lower mortgage rates on this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast with Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler, but for now the head-and-shoulders pattern of the 10-year yield is still somewhat intact, though a fight for it to break lower is happening. I wouldn’t get too excited about mortgage rates until the 10-year yield can b...