MBA forecast: Mortgage volume to dip below $2T in 2027 as 7% rates linger

Mortgage originations are expected to continue slowing and finish below $2 trillion in 2027 amid rates that are expected to be remain above 7%, according to a new forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). “We’re going to come down from this spike in rates,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development at the MBA, said on stage during the MBA’s 2026 Annual Convention and Expo in Chicago on Sunday. “The unfortunate news is, I don’t think we’re going to come down that far.” The MBA’s baseline forecast projects 30-year mortgage rates will stay above 7% through 2027, after reaching 7.5% last week. At this level, total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to decrease 5% to $1.99 trillion in 2027, down from the $2.1 trillion projected for 2026. According to Fratantoni, part of the pressure stems from global volatility, which increases perceived repayment risk. That risk is priced directly as a wider spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield. “After years of trying to bring that spread down, we were 300 basis points in 2023. We were (as low as) 200 this year. We’re back up to 220 ...