New forecasts show Australia’s apartment market is entering a new growth phase, with building starts set to climb sharply from 2026.
Australia’s apartment sector could be on the cusp of a revival, with new Housing Industry Association (HIA) forecasts pointing to a surge in construction starts from 2026.
According to HIA, apartment commencements are expected to grow by 6.5% in 2026, accelerating towards almost 100,000 new builds annually by the end of the decade.
HIA forecasts apartment commencements to grow by 6.5% in 2026. Picture: Getty
In 2024, just over 61,000 multi‑unit dwellings began construction, but momentum is building. With 19,450 apartment starts in the March quarter of 2025, HIA forecasts this to moderate slightly to 17,440 in the June quarter and remain steady for the rest of the year. That would bring the total to 72,070 – a 17.2% lift from 2024.
From there, commencements are projected to reach 76,570 in 2026, jump to 96,910 by 2028, and edge close to the 100,000 mark in 2029.
“Population growth remains elevated, migration is returning to metro areas and established apartment prices are rising faster than detached homes,” HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said.
“These are the early signals of an emerging apartment cycle, as new developments once again start to stack up financially.”
Mr Reardon said the recovery would occur alongside continued strength in detached home building and renovations.
“This will not be a speculative boom,” he said.
“It’s a necessary response to growing population pressures and rising demand for housing in our major cities.”
When it comes to detached houses, there were 28,620 dwellings that started construction in the March quarter of 2025, with a similar 28,240 forecast for the June quarter, rising to 29,470 by the final quarter of 2025.
This will bring the total of detached house starts to 115,070 for the year – up 7.2% on 2024. Steady improvement is expected to continue, according to the organisation, peaking at 125,840 in 2027 before moderating to 116,370 in 2029.
Signs of momentum
The latest forecasts come after building approvals for multi-dwelling projects jumped 26% in September 2025.
Apartments were the standout driver, with September approvals up 81.7% compared with August in original terms.
According to Mr Reardon, the next building cycle will depend on further government policies, such as NSW’s Pre-Sale Finance Guarantee, which launched in September 2025.
“If state governments recognise that high taxes on apartment builders and financiers have limited supply and address these issues, the recovery could accelerate further,” he said.
“The NSW Government’s recent underwriting program for apartment projects is an encouraging first step.”
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