From Rust to Renaissance: The Industrial Heartland’s Long Road to Recovery Continues

For decades, the narrative surrounding America’s Rust Belt was one of decline — factories lying dormant, population decline, urban blight and struggling communities. However, a quiet but determined effort has been underway to revitalize the region, as documented in one of our previous reports.

But, capturing this resurgence in a single snapshot is no easy feat. So, recognizing the vast area and varied conditions across the region, we implemented a multi-layered approach.

First, we tracked progress in promising Midwestern and Northeastern cities between 2017 and 2022 by using a combination of our own data and information from the U.S. Census Bureau. To ensure a fair comparison, cities were grouped by population size. We then awarded points based on improvements in various aspects: population growth, household income, job creation (unemployment reduction), poverty reduction, and real estate growth (housing and commercial inventory, along with median home values). For more details, visit our methodology section.

Secondly, we provided some context for these numbers, especially where trends didn’t demonstrate straightforward progression. For this, we drew upon the insights from experts studying urban renewal and community revitalization strategies.

Read the following section for an overview of the overall performances of large and mid-sized Rust Belt cities. The report then continues with a more in-depth analysis of each individual metric, in addition to expert insights.

Key highlights

Top Performances Across Several Metrics from Madison, Wis. & Buffalo, N.Y.

Among Rust Belt cities with populations of more than 200,000 residents, Madison, Wis., displayed top performances across half of the 12 metrics included in this study. Specifically, the city came in first for its population increase after growing by 7% between 2017 and 2022 to add roughly 18,000 new residents to its total. The city also boasted the highest median income per household across cities in this population bucket — $74,000 per year, outranking runner-up Chicago — as well as the most active housing and commercial real estate pipeline with a lot of activity focused around Madison’s downtown area.

In second place overall, Buffalo, N.Y., took center stage for its poverty-reduction efforts and median household income growth (40% across the surveyed period). It also shared the #1 spot with Madison for its population increase — a positive development for the city after decades of contraction.

Columbus, Ohio, came in third, aided by a string of above-average performances. Although it lacked any first-place finishes, Ohio’s capital placed second for the percentage of new industrial, office and retail space added to its stock since 2017. It also finished third for new housing units built and median home value growth.

Next in line, Fort Wayne, Ind., (4^th place) and Philadelphia (5^th place) also recorded good performances for several metrics. In particular, Fort Wayne witnessed the third-highest population growth percentage in this ranking (a 5% hike, which added roughly 12,600 new residents to the city’s total), as well as one of the lowest poverty and unemployment rates (as of 2022). Meanwhile, Philadelphia secured first place for the most substantial percentage increase in median household earnings. The City of Brotherly Love also placed second in terms of new residential real estate added to its inventory across a five-year period.

Not to be outdone, entries in the lower half of the list still produced noteworthy performances. For instance, Toledo, Ohio, (12^th place) was tied in first place with Buffalo, N.Y., for unemployment reduction, while the third-highest home value increase took place in Detroit.

Grand Rapids, Mich., Claims Highest Percentage of Housing Units Added Among Mid-Sized Rust Belt Cities

As for the Rust Belt cities with fewer than 200,000 residents, top performances were more evenly distributed among entries. Namely, Grand Rapids, Mich. — which secured the #1 spot overall — came out on top for adding the highest number of new housing units to its stock between 2017 and 2022. The city also boasted the highest median household income among cities in this category (as of 2022), as well as the largest commercial real estate inventory (60 million square feet).

In this category, Allentown, Pa., finished second, having been particularly successful in its poverty-reduction efforts (bringing its rate down by 8% to roughly 19%, as per most recently available data) and boasting the third-highest population increase.

Closing out the top three, Kenosha, Wis., had the largest percentage increase in its commercial real estate stock among cities with fewer than 200,000 residents. Here, industrial construction played a big part in this performance. Overall, Kenosha added roughly 10 million square feet of retail, office and industrial space to its inventory since 2017.

Other significant performances included: Waukegan, Ill., which received maximum points for its unemployment reduction and for the third-largest percentage increase of its commercial real estate inventory; South Bend, Ind., which led in terms of population percentage growth; and Lorain, Ohio, which came in first for household income growth.

Finally, although Flint, Mich., still has a long way to go on its journey toward recovery, it nevertheless distinguished itself for having the most significant percentage increase in median home values among smaller Rust Belt cities.

The following sections highlight cities’ performances for individual indicators considered in our analysis. Select a metric from the list below to see which cities fared best in each category:

Population Size Differences in 2017 vs. 2022

Changes in a city’s population often reflect changes in its fortunes — or, at least, they highlight significant moments in its evolution. So, given this analysis’ focus on a five-year period stretching from 2017 to 2022 — which was marked by a generational black swan event (the COVID-19 pandemic) — it’s worth noting that any observations regarding population changes must be interpreted in conjunction with decade-long trends across the region as a whole, as well as in individual cities.

In any case, local governments and community leaders across the former Rust Belt have taken steps to reimagine the area as a place of innovation — a Silicon Heartland of sorts with plenty of local talent to draw upon and the higher learning institutions to nurture it. However, to date, the ebb and flow of residents remains deeply uneven across the region.

Buffalo, N.Y., Reverses Decades-Long Population Decline With 7% Increase

Among Rust Belt cities with a population size exceeding 200,000 residents, Buffalo, N.Y., and Madison, Wis., were tied in first place in terms of their population growth, both increasing their totals by nearly 7% each between 2017 and 2022. And, while both experienced an influx of new residents during the surveyed period, they offer contrasting stories of their recent past.

For example, Buffalo’s population had been on an interrupted downward trajectory since 1990, reaching its lowest point one year prior to the pandemic. Then, in 2020, the city recorded its first uptick in decades as Buffalo made investments in public facilities and housing aimed at attracting people looking to build a life outside of New York City. Now, the latest estimates point to a total of 276,500 residents.

By contrast, Madison has benefited from a prolonged upward trend, going from fewer than 200,000 residents in the early 1990s to its current population of 273,000.

Next, Fort Wayne’s population increased by roughly 12,600 new residents — a 5% hike for the Indiana city. At the same time, Columbus, Ohio, landed in fourth place and boasted the largest increase in sheer number of residents among its peers after growing its tally by 26,500 during the surveyed period.

Finally, Rochester, N.Y., and Pittsburgh were the only other cities on this list that experienced an uptick in their population sizes (albeit, both by less than 1%). That leaves more than two-thirds of the entries on the list in the red in terms of their demographics.

Detroit Casts Doubts Over Population Estimates & Reported Decreases

Home to more than 1 million residents in the 1990s, Detroit continued to lose residents at a significant rate (a nearly 8% slump) throughout the years leading up to the pandemic and beyond. In fact, since 2017, the city has reportedly lost roughly 52,700 residents.

Another entry to witness a significant loss was St. Louis, Mo., with a 7% drop in the total number of residents. More precisely, 2020 was the first time that the city ducked below the 300,000-residents mark since the mid-1800s. The coronavirus proved to be a dangerous accelerant for the trend, as highlighted by a Brookings Institute report.

Further north and less significant in terms of percentages, Chicago is estimated to have lost some 51,000 people following a 2% drop.

However, the overarching context might not be quite as damning, at least not in the case of Detroit: The Michigan city has actually been publicly disputing the U.S. Census’ methodology when it comes to population estimates. Dr. Rex LaMore, director of Michigan State University’s Center for Community Economic Development, laid out some of Detroit’s arguments regarding the issue:

“There’s been a substantial amount of housing, as well as commercial properties removed in Detroit, Flint, Cleveland and Toledo,” Dr. LaMore said. “So, to the extent you’re relying on a statistical method to estimate the population based on the number of structures, the probability of undercount is probably pretty high.”

Ideally, Detroit would like a more multifaceted approach to population counts in cities across the Rust Belt, instead of an over-emphasis on new housing and demolition data. And, with more than 300 programs — including Medicaid — relying on Census data to distribute funds, the outcome of the lawsuit could have serious implications for a host of other cities in the region.

South Bend, Ind., Tops Population Growth Among Smaller Rust Belt Cities

Demographic ups and downs in smaller Midwestern cities (populations below 200,000 people) are even more pronounced in terms of percentage differences — sometimes by as much as double digits. Of the 19 cities with populations below 200,000 residents, only seven witnessed an increase with South Bend, Ind., and Schenectady, N.Y., being the outstanding performers among the entries.

Between 2017 and 2022, South Bend, Ind., witnessed the largest increase in its number of residents since the 1950 Census. The population total jumped 10%, nearing 106,000 residents per the latest estimates, making this one of the most significant increases across all Rust Belt entries that made our rankings. Given the city’s size, the actual number of residents added to its tally might not look impressive, but within the context of South Bend population trends — which have recorded increases only twice in 70 years — it’s a remarkable feat.

Other entries that reported an uptick in the number of residents include Allentown and Betlehem in Pennsylvania. Both went up by 3% and, more encouragingly, have been growing steadily not just since the pandemic, but throughout the last three decades. Finally, Lorain, Ohio; Lafayette, Ind.; and Syracuse, N.Y., all had between 1% and 2% increases in their total numbers of residents since 2017.

Unfortunately, the list of small to mid-sized cities that are still losing people is much longer. Places like Akron, Ohio, and Muncie, Ind., lost nearly 5% of their residents during the surveyed period, while Gary, Ind., and Flint, Mich., show no signs of slowing down their decades-long population declines with 11% and 17% drops, respectively.

Toledo, Ohio & Buffalo, N.Y. Top Unemployment Reduction Ranking Among Larger Rust Belt Cities

Once home to some of the most secure and benefits-driven jobs in the U.S., the Rust Belt has been wrestling with higher-than-average unemployment rates since well before COVID-19. Even so, the ability of some cities to bounce back to their pre-pandemic unemployment levels — or even reduce them — is a good indicator of their economic resilience.

Percentage-wise, Toledo, Ohio, and Buffalo, N.Y., were the standouts for unemployment reduction between 2017 and 2022. In both cities, unemployment dropped by roughly four percentage points to reach 5.6% in January 2022 in Toledo and 4.4% in Buffalo. Attracting talent by emphasizing the relative affordability of Toledo or Buffalo’s success in manufacturing workforce employment continues to be a priority as the two cities aim not just to lower their unemployment rates, but also to expand their local workforces.

Cleveland and Detroit were next in line for unemployment reduction with 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively. However, because both faced much higher unemployment levels at the start of the surveyed period, their 2022 rates were still relatively high — 12% in Detroit and 9% in Cleveland — which were well above the national average of 3.8%.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the unemployment rate in Madison, Wis., has held relatively steady, decreasing by less than one percentage point throughout the last five years to reach 2% in January 2022. It’s by far the lowest rate within the list of Rust Belt cities with more than 200,000 residents, as well as roughly half of the unemployment levels in Fort Wayne, Ind.; Buffalo, N.Y.; and Columbus, Ohio.

Successful Unemployment Reduction Efforts in Waukegan, Ill. Lead to Lowest Rate Among Smaller Rust Belt Cities

Among the cities with a population size below the 200,000-resident threshold, Waukegan, Ill., completed the double by finishing first both in terms of its unemployment reduction and its unemployment rate at the end of the five-year surveyed period. Specifically, the city’s unemployment rate dropped by nearly seven percentage points to reach 2.5% in January 2022.

Then, Canton, Ohio, and Syracuse, N.Y., completed the rest of the podium after lowering their pre-pandemic unemployment levels by more than 5%.

Notably, the only entry in this category to witness an increase in its unemployment rates was Muncie, Ind., which went from 6% in 2017 to 8% five years later.

Poverty Rate Differences in 2017 vs. 2022

Poverty reduction remains one of the most challenging aims of local administrations across the former Rust Belt. While many cities showed encouraging performances across economic or social metrics, ensuring that these benefits reach some of the most disadvantaged members or groups within the community is what will ultimately move the needle in terms of bringing people out of poverty.

Poverty Reduction Efforts Result in 6% Decreases in New York’s Rochester & Buffalo

Of course, when discussing any progress made in poverty reduction, we must also acknowledge the varying baselines from which each entry on our list has been trying to make improvements. For example, New York’s Rochester and Buffalo have both managed to bring poverty levels down by 6% — the most significant reduction across the list of cities with more than 200,000. However, the percentage of people living below the poverty threshold in these cities was and continues to be among the highest in our ranking (26% in Rochester and 24% in Buffalo).

Next, and following a four-point decrease, roughly 22% of Philadelphia’s residents lived below the poverty line in 2022. That’s the same percentage as in Milwaukee, although the Wisconsin city got there after a 3% drop across the five years we looked at.

Likewise, Fort Wayne, Ind.’s poverty levels decreased by 2%, but the city nevertheless enjoyed the lowest rate among entries in the 200,000+ population category (14% as of 2022).

6% Drop in Number of People Living Below Poverty Line in Racine, Wis.

Looking at the list of Rust Belt cities with fewer than 200,000 residents, it was Wisconsin’s Racine and Kenosha, as well as Waukegan, Ill., that stood out for achieving the lowest poverty rates by 2022. Following a six-point decrease, the most recent data showed 11% of people were living below the poverty line in Racine, which was just below the nationwide rate. At the same time, Kenosha and Waukegan’s poverty rates of 12% were the result of declines of 4% and 3%, respectively, across the surveyed period.

Similarly, a cluster of five cities made significant progress in their efforts to reduce poverty between 2017 and 2022: While rates were still above the national average, Allentown, Pa., reduced its percentage of people living below the poverty line by 8% — the steepest reduction across all Rust Belt cities in this analysis. Not far behind, poverty rates in Lorain, Ohio; Dayton, Ohio; Syracuse, N.Y.; and Lansing, Mich., decreased by 4% to 6%.

At the other end of the spectrum, Flint, Mich. — which had the highest poverty rate to boot among entries — only managed a 1% decrease. Further south, the percentage of residents struggling to make ends meet in Akron, Ohio, actually increased by 2% to 24% during the same period.

Household Income Growth in 2017 vs. 2022

People have various reasons for living in a particular city, but career advancement opportunities and competitive salaries remain a deciding factor. As such, changes in median household income levels are not just a sign of an economic upturn, but also a useful indicator of how resources are allocated, as well as a gauge of the effectiveness of certain measures to reduce poverty.

Median Household Incomes in Philadelphia Rise by 42%

Looking at the rate of income growth among entries with more than 200,000 residents, we noticed that Philadelphia and Buffalo, N.Y., grew their household incomes by 42% and 40%, respectively. In raw numbers, that translated into an extra $16,700 in median earnings in Philadelphia and a $14,000 hike in Buffalo.

According to a Pew research paper on Philadelphia’s economy following the pandemic, the city’s declining workforce has put pressure on employers to increase wages to attract or retain existing workers.

Meanwhile, in Rochester, N.Y., household incomes went from $34,000 in 2017 to roughly $44,000 five years later following a 30% increase, while Pittsburgh’s wages rose by $17,500 (a 38% increase during the surveyed period).

Remarkably, cities such as Detroit and Cleveland also managed double-digit increases: Motor City registered a 20% hike (although median household incomes remain just below the $40,000 mark), while Cleveland also upped earnings by a respectable 29%.

Granted, Madison, Wis., and Chicago didn’t experience particularly significant growth rates. That said, by 2022, they boasted the highest annual household incomes in this population bracket ($74,000 and $70,000, respectively). Pittsburgh came in third with $63,400.

Ohio Duo Records Highest Median Household Earnings Growth Among Smaller Rust Belt Cities

As for household income percentage increases among smaller Rust Belt Cities, two entries from Ohio headed the list: Lorain’s 44% jump brought its average household income to an annual $46,600, while median earnings in Dayton increased by 43%, which translated to a $13,000 boost in actual dollar value.

Despite these significant bumps, Grand Rapids, Mich., had the highest median household income in this population bracket in 2022 at $65,600 per year. It was followed by Waukegan, Ill., and Kenosha, Wis., at roughly $64,000. Once again, the relative labor shortage in the region due to the population declines that many cities have been experiencing since prior to COVID-19 — along with the fact that most Baby Boomers are already in retirement — was an important factor in these income increases. Thus, with many employers unable to fill low-wage positions without substantial pay raises, median incomes have also been shifting upward.

Racine, Wis., also performed well both in terms of its average household income value (placing fifth with $59,500), as well as its percentage growth to finish in fourth place with 38%.

Likewise, Gary, Ind., and Flint, Mich., witnessed significant increases to their median household incomes (36% and 23%, respectively). Yet, because reported earnings in 2022 were still below the $40,000 mark for both of them, it’s clear that they need to make up a lot of ground in the coming years.

Changes in Housing Stock in 2017 vs. 2022

When it comes to assessing a city’s economic vibrancy and future prospects, it’s common to analyze its residential inventory and construction activity. That’s because an active pipeline suggests that the area is able to attract real and long-term interest from people who want to live and work in that city.

Indeed, several Rust Belt cities have added thousands of new housing units to their stock between 2017 and 2022. And, while our ranking also highlights a number of places that have witnessed important reductions in their residential stock throughout the same period, experts suggest that these were largely due to blight removal, as well as deconstruction efforts aimed at salvaging and reusing construction materials from older, existing structures.

Detroit is a prime example of a Rust Belt city that has “aggressively pursued the removal of abandoned and blighted structures,” Dr. LaMore said. “Primarily, it’s residential properties, but commercial follows with many of the cities around the Great Lakes that have had residential population decline and abandonment collecting the resulting materials from demolitions and deconstructions in a single source — in this case, the port of Muskegon — to perhaps create a salvage industry sector.”

Madison Sees 16% Bump in Housing with 18,000 New Units Added

Beginning with the entries that witnessed growth, Madison, Wis., placed first in terms of the percentage increase of its housing stock. Following a 16% bump, the city added 18,000 new units throughout the five-year period to bring its grand total to 134,400 units. More precisely, according to Madison’s 2023 Housing Snapshot Report, construction activity focused on downtown and on the isthmus through both the Wilson Street and East Washington corridors. Plus, future multifamily projects are located in areas well-served by transit.

Philadelphia was next in line with 11%, which translated to an additional 71,700 units introduced to the city’s residential market. Here, most of the housing development occurred in the Greater City Center area with projects focusing on creating dense, walkable and diverse communities.

At the same time, a 10% jump for this metric delivered 37,500 new housing units in Columbus, Ohio, during the surveyed period, while Chicago’s 4% increase resulted in 49,500 extra housing units.

Conversely, a number of cities in the region saw their housing stocks diminish. For instance, Toledo and Cleveland in Ohio lost 4% and 6% of their total housing units, respectively, as 5,600 and 12,500 units were wiped from their inventories. In the same vein, the most recently available Census data also showed a 14% drop in the number of housing units across Detroit — one of the most dramatic decreases across the entire region.

That said, there are some important caveats that offer a more nuanced — and, arguably, a more hopeful perspective — on the future of these places. Namely, in Cleveland and Detroit, demolitions aimed at reducing neighborhood blight play a big part in housing stock reduction. But, as city officials and community leaders have pointed out, there’s currently a statistical blind spot when it comes to mapping recovery in this area that doesn’t strictly involve new units being built. As an example, in Cleveland, occupancy levels for existing units have been steadily increasing since even before the pandemic, and most of the residents moving in or back to Detroit are more likely to be moving into an existing home than to build a new one. It’s also worth noting that restoration or full renovations of houses don’t count toward housing numbers, either, according to the current Census methodology.

Otherwise, among Rust Belt cities with fewer than 200,000 residents, Grand Rapids, Mich., stood out in terms of residential construction by both percentage and unit growth. With 8,888 new units introduced to the market, the city recorded an 11% increase throughout the surveyed period.

Betlehem, Pa.; South Bend, Ind.; and Allentown, Pa. were the runners-up with 7% hikes, which saw them adding between 2,000 and 3,000 new units to their housing inventories.

On the flip side, the residential market in Flint, Mich., lost 13,600 housing units since 2017, which was roughly four times the amount shed by Schenectady, N.Y., and Gary, Ind.

As previously stated, in the case of many former industrial and manufacturing cities, a shrinking housing stock is not always bad news. Take the case of Flint, Mich.: During the last decade, the city has been actively identifying buildings in need of blight-removal measures. And, having already removed 5,350 such properties, Flint has secured funding for a second large blight-removal project that would demolish a total of 1,910 structures.

“There’s a real strong motivation to remove blighted structures because there are negative social and economic impacts associated with blight,” Dr. LaMore said. “It’s higher substance abuse, crime rates, lower property values [and] higher insurance rates, so the communities really want these things removed as quickly as possible. To do so, they must get the right to remove it and secure the ownership of the property. That’s where land banks play an important role. They take a lot of these properties and then make decisions about either renovating or removing them. And, they’ve been empowered in a number of the Great Lakes states to play that role as receivers of abandoned properties, primarily through foreclosed taxes.”

Median Home Value Differences in 2017 vs. 2022

Changes in median home values can provide various insights into what’s happening in any given community.

On the one hand, rising home values can be viewed as an encouraging sign of robust demand for housing in an economically thriving area. However, because increases in home values and incomes levels don’t always align, affordability can become an issue.

On the other hand, it’s worth mentioning that some of the rising costs we’re seeing might have been caused by the construction delays that occurred — especially in 2020 and 2021 — rather than increased market demand.

Home Values Grow by More Than 50% Across 5 Larger Rust Belt Cities

Topping the list in terms of home value percentage increase was Buffalo, N.Y., where the median home price shot up by 73% from $92,700 to $160,700. And, following a 69% hike, mid-point prices for houses in Pittsburgh reached $209,000.

At the same time, Madison, Wis., recorded a nearly 50% price hike in median home price. The average cost to buy a house in Madison in 2022 was around the $358,000 mark. That was more than double the cost of a house in Milwaukee and was the highest value among Rust Belt cities with more than 200,000 residents, suggesting continued demand for housing in the area.

Other cities have also witnessed important improvements in this area, as highlighted by Dr. LaMore:

“Cities like Detroit and Cleveland are experiencing some rebirth in terms of people wanting to live in more walkable neighborhoods and densely populated areas,” he said. “And, we’ve certainly seen some reinvestment in the city of Detroit. It’s been pretty exciting and seems to be happening on a more frequent basis.”

Despite Largest Price Increase by Percentage, Flint Housing Values Remain Below Region’s Average

Turning our attention to cities with fewer than 200,000 residents, Flint’s evolution is worth highlighting. While the 78% jump is a positive sign, the $49,000 median home price in Flint remains well below other cities in the ranking.

“Flint’s still languishing in many ways,” confirmed Dr. LaMore. “Redevelopment efforts aren’t happening at the same scale and pace as in Detroit or Chicago. They’re hoping for a turnaround, but they have some lingering issues and certainly a bad reputation and continuing disinvestment in the auto industry.”

By contrast, Allentown, Pa., which recorded a 67% increase — the second-largest percentage hike during the surveyed period — saw its median home price jump from $123,700 to 206,000. Similarly, in neighboring Bethlehem, Pa., home values went up 51% to reach $257,000.

Back in Michigan, Grand Rapids was built around small businesses and light manufacturing. As such, this city never experienced the sharp decline that ravaged communities in company-reliant cities like Detroit or Flint. This relative stability also had a positive effect on the evolution of its residential market and its resilience, even in the post-pandemic landscape.

Accordingly, between 2017 and 2022, home values in Grand Rapids ballooned by 65%, tacking on an estimated $94,000 to median home prices in the city. By 2022, prospective buyers could expect to dish out around $238,000 — nearly double the amount in Lansing, Mich., and more than triple that in Detroit.

Chicago Adds Highest Number of Retail, Industrial & Office Space Square Footage to Its Stock; Madison, Wis., Tops Percentage Growth Ranking with 13%

While Madison, Wis., stood out for its 13% increase in commercial real estate construction (the highest among cities with more than 200,000 residents), it was runner-up Chicago that grew its inventory the most when measured by total square feet added: Following an 8% jump, more than 25 million square feet of industrial, retail and office space was added to Chicago’s stock, which currently stands at roughly 328 million square feet. For comparison, Madison’s growth translated to an extra 3.8 million square foot.

Not far behind, three entries witnessed 7% increases in their commercial development activity between 2017 and 2024. First, Columbus, Ohio, increased its inventory by 12 million square feet, while Philadelphia’s stock grew by 11 million square feet. Finally, 6.7 million square feet of commercial real estate was added to Detroit’s total, which currently claims 100 million square feet of office, industrial and retail space.

Otherwise, among Rust Belt cities with fewer than 200,000 residents, Kenosha, Wis., stood out both in terms of percentage and square footage increase between 2017 and 2024. More precisely, the Wisconsin city added an impressive 10 million square feet of commercial real estate to its inventory on the heels of a 67% hike throughout this period. This surge in construction activity was spurred by a series of industrial projects going up in the I-55/I-80 SW corridors. Thus, by the close of 2018, the Kenosha market boasted the highest number of such projects in its pipeline in the area.

In second place, Bethlehem’s commercial real estate inventory in Pennsylvania grew by 22% from 32 million square feet to 39 million square feet at present. Here, the city’s downtown has been at the heart of this development boom, while the lands that previously housed the former Bethlehem Steel plants are now home to tech incubators and industrial parks, as well as an entertainment district anchored by the ArtsQuest Center at SteelStacks and the Wind Creek Casino.

Closing out the podium, Waukegan, Ill.’s office, industrial and retail total increased by 16% to reach 16.8 million square feet.

Notably, Scranton, Pa.; Racine, Wis.; and Gary, Ind., were the only entries in our ranking that did not grow their commercial real estate inventories during the surveyed period.

Granted, new construction numbers give us only a partial picture of the dynamism within the local business landscape and real estate market. That’s because the changes brought on following the shift to hybrid work, the emergence of e-commerce and the growing demand for warehouse construction — along with the need to repurpose struggling retail properties into attractive, mixed-use assets for their local communities — add a new layer of complexity to the picture. In that respect, Rust Belt cities are subject to various nationwide trends not only in terms of construction activity, but also with regards to reconversions and repurposing of existing commercial properties.

As an example, in late October 2022, Dermody Properties decided to remove several buildings across a sprawling suburban campus in northern Chicago to make way for an industrial mega-development. The offices were formerly occupied by Allstate, but when the insurer opted for a new remote work policy, Dermody found an opportunity to acquire an asset in a prime location to accommodate demand for the growing local warehousing market. This is just one of the many examples of retrofits and conversions that have been supercharged following the pandemic.

Methodology