Hobart home values could rise by 3 per cent next year. Picture: Supplied
IF the best possible conditions come to fruition, Hobart homeowners could be in for a nice surprise in 2025.
PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook report has forecast between 0 per cent and 3 per cent growth for 2025.
This comes after November’s Home Price Index showed Hobart’s annual price growth was 1.33 per cent, its best result in years.
For the typical median value $700,000 house, a 3 per cent increase would add $21,000 to the price.
Report author and REA Group director of economic research, Cameron Kusher, said Hobart was one of the few cities where price growth could be stronger next year than it was this year.
“We don’t expect growth to shoot the lights out, but following the underperformance of Hobart in recent years, it is starting to look more affordable now.
“Over the past few months, Hobart has seen price growth accelerate to a little bit.”
PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook.
Looking back a decade, Mr Kusher said affordability was a growth driver for the southernmost capital city and Tasmania.
“It lost that advantage. But without strong growth in recent years, it is starting to look more affordable compared to strong performing cities like Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.”
A range of factors can affect property market performance, but for Hobart, Mr Kusher sees two elements as key.
“We will need to see is the amount of stock on the market moderate,” he said.
“There are a lot of properties available for sale, everywhere. High interest rates for longer are among the things that have contributed to this.
“And, unfortunately, we may have to wait longer for interest rate cuts. Once we get some cuts, borrowing capacities will increase, and then some of this excess stock will start to sell.
“Stronger price growth would then follow, likely over the second half of 2025.
“Our expectation is May for the first rate cut, Then one or two more. This should improve the market somewhat, without seeing a rapid escalation in prices.”
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Cameron Kusher from REA Group.
While PropTrack did not forecast regional markets in this report, Mr Kusher said it would be fair to expect similar growth in regional Tasmania as is expected in Hobart.
The report found that while capital city inquiries per listing on realestate.com.au were 8.6 per cent lower in 2024 compared to 2023, only Hobart, Melbourne and Darwin recorded increases in activity.
It found the total number of Hobart listings for sale was up by 5 per cent year-on-year, and that sales volume had increased by nearly 4 per cent — between January and November — compared to the same time in 2023.
The median time a Hobart home spent advertised on realestate.com.au rose from 22 days in 2023 to 38 day in November, 2024.
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There were more homes for sale in Hobart this year compared to 2023.
Meanwhile, SQM Research’s Boom or Bust report forecast for Hobart home prices pitched a shift in the range of 3 per cent lower up to 2 per cent higher in 2025.
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