Did mortgage rates just peak or is this some bond market madness?

Did mortgage rates just peak, or is the current drop only due to a short-term technical move lower in bonds? We’ve just had a wild 48 hours for the 10-year yield, mortgage rates and economic data. The bond market action might be very confusing, so let me give you my brief take on this.In the last 48 hours, we got two very hot inflation reports, positive retail sales, rising oil prices and historically low jobless claims. We also had a lot of Fed hawks talk recently about needing more rate hikes. So what gives with the bond market action since the highs of yesterday? What I believe just happened is what we have talked about for some time now: The 10-year yield hit a very, very key level of 5.35% a few times over the last month. That level has now been tested a few times and held — the bond traders did not want to take it to the next level by selling bonds more. On Wednesday, news about concerns over AI company CoreWeave‘s bad debt financing drove yields lower. I mean, one hint of bad news from the AI trade and money went into the bonds and really that is it — nothing big materially changed with the economy, but we were just so oversold with bonds that we couldn’t break the key level...