The pandemic kicked off a Great Migration for Canadians, who fled expensive provinces for affordable housing. That boom is ending for Atlantic Canada, but continues in Alberta according to a new analysis from BMO Capital Markets. They found the two biggest losers are BC and Ontario, where people continue to flee the sky-high cost of living. Good news for Alberta, but not for Atlantic Canada, BC, or Ontario. It’s going to be hard to justify lofty real estate valuations in those provinces, as locals flee and immigration slows.
Net Interprovincial Migration
Net interprovincial migration is the balance of Canadians that move to a province. A positive balance is a net inflow—fewer residents left than arrived from other provinces. A negative balance is an outflow, and the province is losing more people than it can attract. This is an important, but often misunderstood, sentiment metric for a quality of life.
Yes, a sentiment metric. It provides insight into the outlook of a provincial economy based on domestic experience. These are people who make the difficult decision to leave their province based on experience within the country. They understand the local economy and don’t see a future there. Failing to retain talent, especially core aged workers, is a disastrous setup for an economy.
Most policymakers dismiss the issue since the population can still grow based on immigration. Ontario comes to mind, home to the largest negative outflows but big immigration-based growth. It’s arrogant to think that high-skilled immigrants won’t see the same opportunity (or lack of), and follow a similar migration. By relying solely on immigration, an economy is amplifying its vulnerability to sudden economic shock.
Canadians No Longer Flocking To Atlantic Canada As Value Erodes
When the pandemic kicked off and Canadians went remote, people flocked to Atlantic Canada. That boom helped send real estate prices soaring, especially in Halifax—where home prices were amongst the fastest rising in the country. And just like that, the affordable housing people were seeking disappeared along with the inflows of people into Eastern Canada.
“Net interprovincial migration to Atlantic Canada, a region that has been booming since the pandemic, is fizzling out,” explains Robert Kavic, senior economist at BMO.
The bank’s data shows Atlantic Canada’s seasonally adjusted annualized net migration peaked at an inflow of more than 25k people. Since then, that’s spiraled down to 0 in the most recent data release.
“For a region that has seen growth driven well above recent norms by torrid population flows (both interprovincial and international), this is a development that could take some serious heat out of growth and housing next year,” explains Kavcic.
Canadians Still Moving To Alberta, East Coast Lost Its Appeal
Source: BMO Capital Markets.
Alberta Is Still Attracting A Near Record Number of Canadians
The Great Migration that kicked off with the pandemic is far from over. Alberta saw a sudden inflow due to affordable housing and something Atlantic Canada doesn’t have—jobs. The province is still poaching talent from across the country at a near-record rate.
At it’s peak, Alberta saw a net inflow of just over 50k people. A trend that began right after Atlantic Canada’s slowdown, and Kavcic explains is still going strong. His analysis shows a near-record net inflow of 50k people in the latest quarter.
“Where are people leaving? B.C. and Ontario. Or put another way…they’re leaving expensive housing and congestion,” explains the bank.
Home prices in the two provinces have begun to show signs of firming, but it’s unclear if this rally has legs. Canada plans to intentionally slow its population growth starting next year, and the current plan is to continue this into 2026. With outflows still happening at a fast rate, the primary factor driving prices in those provinces would be credit.
English (US) · 