Canadian Real Estate Crash Overstated, Nova Scotia Up $13k In A Month

Canadian real estate sales may be tepid at best, but their correction appears greatly overstated. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported prices climbed 0.5% (+$3.1k) to $664,400 in March. Diving into their provincial Home Price Indexes (HPI) reveals that all but one province saw prices rise last month. Nova Scotia even posted a mind-boggling 5-digit price increase over just 31 days. Despite national prices showing a significant correction, it appears only two provinces have made any meaningful declines. 

CREA data shows that 8 of the 9 provinces that report HPIs saw growth last month—two of those even saw 5-digit growth: Nova Scotia saw prices surge 3.2% (+$13.5k) to $437,200 in March, more than 6x the national growth rate and by far the largest across the country. It was followed by Saskatchewan’s 2.8% (+$10.3k) gain to $374,100. New Brunswick was the one exception where prices fell 0.3% (-$0.9k) to $329,400. 

The first quarter of 2026 has generally been positive in terms of price growth, with the price of a typical home across Canada up 0.7% (+$4.6k). The provincial breakdown makes that look conservative, considering 6 in 9 provinces were in the black and 5-digit price growth was seen in four: 

• Nova Scotia (+5.8%; +$23.9k) 
• Saskatchewan (+4.2%; +$15.1k) 
• Quebec (+3.7%; +$19.8k), and 
• Alberta (+2.1%; +$10.4k). 

In other words, the growth rate in the first quarter in nearly half of the provinces outpaced annual inflation targets. Heck, three of those have already surpassed annual wage growth. 

Just three provinces were in the red for Q1 2026:  

• New Brunswick (-1.4%; -$4.7k)
• British Columbia (-0.5%; -$4.9k)
• Newfoundland (-0.3%; -$1.1k)

Canadian real estate prices may be down 21% (-$176.9k) since the peak in March 2022. However, only two provinces have seen a major contraction: Ontario has seen prices fall 25.6% (-$257.9k), while prices in BC are 14.9% (-$156.2k) lower. Other provinces have barely seen any movement, 3.5% or less from their respective record highs.    

Quebec and Saskatchewan both hit all-time highs last month. Meanwhile, Nova Scotia (-0.1%) and PEI (-0.6%) are only off highs by the equivalent of a rounding error.  

Ultimately, the narrative of a massive nationwide housing crash is largely just a reflection of two major markets pulling down the national average. However, that also means that any affordability improvements are largely concentrated in those regions too.