Canadian real estate soared on runaway population growth—but that fuel is running low. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the population stalled in Q2 2025, marking one of the slowest quarters on record. It’s uncharted territory for BC and Ontario, where home prices soared based on the myth of perpetual growth—yet both provinces are now shrinking.
Canadian Population Growth Has Only Had Two Worse Quarters Ever
Canadian Population Growth: Quarterly change in thousands.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Canadian population growth is grinding down to one of the slowest rates on record. The population growth was basically a rounding error, advancing 0.0% (+20.1k people) to 41.55 million people in Q2 2025. Only two other quarters in history have shown weaker growth—in 2020, when physical restrictions prevented growth, and 2015 during the global energy downturn. Outside of those instances, this marks new territory for the country—especially if the trend persists.
Canada’s Population Growth Still Lofty Compared To Pre-2016
Those who didn’t notice are forgiven since the country is still coming off record growth. Annual growth still came in at 1.24% (+510.4k people) in Q2 2025—still robust, but half the rate of the peak observed in 2023. Aside from lockdown quarters with physical restrictions, annual growth is now in line with pre-2016 growth rates.
Ontario and BC Populations Made A Rare Contraction
Canadian Population Growth: Provincial breakdown of quarterly change in thousands.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Breaking down the shift shows some provinces aren’t just stagnating, but now shrinking. The largest Q2 declines are estimated in Ontario (-5.7k people), and BC (-2.4k people). While relatively minor, especially in contrast to recent quarters, a quarterly decline is new territory for these provinces: Ontario has never recorded a weaker quarter of growth, and BC has only seen one weaker quarter—in Q4 2020.
Two other provinces were slightly negative, but a contraction so small it’s considered flat: Newfoundland (-115 people), and Quebec (-1.0k people). The remaining provinces posted mild gains, primarily due to interprovincial migration.
Falling population growth is generally a negative, but may not be this time. The population stagnation is due in part to a policy decision to allow the economy to catch up to the crushing pace of growth it failed to support. Canada also began to track outflows this year, which previously led to decades of overstated immigration retention.
The real question is what this means for real estate values—particularly in Ontario and BC. If sky-high home prices were justified by breakneck population growth that’s now stalling, that premium may now be at risk. Policymakers are currently prioritizing healthy growth, but it’s unclear if they can stay the course without the credit-driven bubble they’ve relied on.
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