Canadian mortgage delinquencies continued to rise sharply in Q1 2025, according to Equifax. While the rate remains historically low, it’s climbing fast. The trend was driven largely by Toronto, where delinquencies have hit one of the highest levels in decades, even as other major markets remain well below the national average.
Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies
A delinquent mortgage is a home loan that’s been caught smoking behind the school or engaged in things like minor shoplifting of a candy bar, etc.—you know? A delinquent. Just checking if you’re paying attention.
A delinquent mortgage in Canada is generally considered 90+ days past due, and the rate refers to the share of total mortgages that are 90+ days past due. While often seen as a sign of consumer distress, it’s really about market liquidity. In a hot market, owners who fall behind on payments can sell and sometimes even profit. Delinquencies surge only when home purchases stop, and since there’s always a buyer, it’s just a matter of price—rising delinquencies usually indicate overvaluation.
Canada’s low mortgage delinquency rate sounds reassuring—until you look closer. Industry comparisons to the US often skip over key differences in methodology. One example is the American delinquency rate is usually reported at 60+ days past due, while in Canada it’s 90 days. That extra month matters—a lot of loans recover or the odds of selling increase before that 90-day mark.
Another key difference is who reports that data. In Canada, higher-risk borrowers—like those who can’t get a loan or renewal at a major lender—often turn to private lenders. This fragmented industry plays a growing role in speculative credit, but many don’t report to Equifax (if any credit bureau at all). In contrast, US subprime and risky loans are typically issued by smaller, regulated lenders that do report. Canada’s fragmented system allows for underreporting of its higher-risk borrowers, while the US system is more complete.
Canada’s delinquency rate is generally lower and may be lower than the US—but there’s no apples-to-apples data to confirm. That’s why it’s more useful to track our historical trends. Comparing our economic downturn to the US might feel reassuring, but it doesn’t tell us much. After all, getting punched in the stomach is better than being kicked in the junk, but it still sucks in contrast to not being hit at all.
Got it? On to the data!
Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies Hit A 4-Year High, But Remain Historically Low
The Canadian mortgage delinquency rate: In percentage points.
Source: Equifax; CMHC; Better Dwelling.
Canadian mortgage delinquencies are rising, but remain well below crisis levels. The rate climbed 1 basis point (bp) to 0.22% in Q1 2025—up 4.76% from the previous quarter and 4 bps (22.2%) higher than last year. The Canadian mortgage delinquency rate is now at a 4-year high.
It’s part of a steady trend of rising delinquencies since record lows in Q4 2022. Since then, the rate has climbed 8 bps—an increase of 57.1%. The increase is aggressive, but the rate remains at 2021 levels.
Canadian mortgage delinquencies are rising, but still sit 7 bps below 2019—when things were “normal.” The trend is worth watching, as the climb has been very aggressive, though not yet alarming. Most of the stress appears concentrated in the country’s largest market—Toronto, where the delinquency rate has hit the highest level in over a decade. That contrasts with cities like Montreal and Vancouver, where rates are rising but remain below the national average.
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