Canada’s Business Churn: Near-Record Closures, State-Backed Growth

Canada is seeing its total active business count hold firm, but a dramatic recomp is happening. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows active businesses climbed in November, even if it was a minor advance. Looking past the headline data, there are a few more problems that may not be obvious at first—such as the reliance on non-market segments, implying taxpayers are still paying for that growth. Then there’s also the small matter of it being the third-largest November for business closures on record.  

Canada Sees Minor Growth In Active Businesses 

Canada’s entrepreneurial spirit is looking a little tired in recent months. The volume climbed 0.1% (+928 businesses) to 939.7k active businesses in November, 0.28% (+2.6k) higher than last year. It’s within spitting distance of the record set this past summer, but we’ve only seen 0.32% growth over the past two years. Contrast that with the population advancing roughly 2.58% over a similar period, or about 8x the business growth.

Canadian businesses were shutting their doors at a relatively brisk pace in the latest update. A staggering 45.4k businesses closed in November, down 3.7% from last year but still the third-largest November on record. Notably, the November volume wasn’t even this high during the pandemic, and was only surpassed by 2024 and 2018. Seeing headline growth with this spike means churn, where businesses are failing but new ones are starting in slightly higher volumes.  

The difference is subtle and may be hard to appreciate, especially for policymakers. Churn is like a business carousel: people get on and get off, but it doesn’t go anywhere. New businesses are more efficient, but they also have turnover costs that are never really examined in depth. Some examples include reduced jobs, consumer adjustment periods, and lost loyalty—a factor that keeps spending in a community, helping its prosperity. 

StatCan also includes the number excluding education and healthcare, which isn’t often looked at. The reason for this exclusion is those two segments are heavily dependent on non-market factors, relying largely on taxpayer revenue. The sector itself isn’t a problem, but an entrepreneurship boom is very different from a boom in overflow healthcare and senior homes. Much in the same way government hiring isn’t inherently a problem, but the government being the only party hiring is.

Excluding education and healthcare—with Health Care and Social Assistance alone accounting for 375 of the new active businesses—nearly cuts the 928 total added in November in half. This segment grew just 0.06% (+498 businesses) to 818k active businesses in November, 0.1% (-807) fewer than a year prior. Unlike total active businesses, this number peaked back in January 2024 and remains 0.54% (-4.45k businesses) lower since then. The growth of market-driven business remains significantly suppressed and has contracted even further in the past year. 

The latest business count isn’t the worst news possible, as it avoids an outright headline contraction. However, the details reveal the environment isn’t healthy either. National stats show businesses continue to shutter at a near-record pace, and while they’re being replaced, those replacements are in non-market sectors supported by state spending, essentially privatizing the public payroll.

It’s okay news in the best of times. In the current environment, it further emphasizes the economy is running on fumes. The only thing that has changed is optics: government employees are being fired to give the impression of austerity, while the same spending is now being redirected to the private sector. Both options leave taxpayers with a bill to pay over generations, but the latter funnels those funds into a handful of pockets.