Canada tried to solve its lack of skilled labor with immigration, but it’s having the opposite effect. A new report from the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC), conducted by the Conference Board of Canada, reveals 1 in 5 immigrants that arrived from 1982 to 2019 have already left the country. Those most likely to leave also happen to be economic migrants, people Canada “hand-picked” to fill a skills gap. Failing to retain these workers doesn’t just widen the skill gap, but means the country is hemorrhaging cash to attract and train labor for other countries.
Canada Loses 1 In 5 Immigrants, A Third Within 5 Years
Canada is increasingly seeing its immigrants leave, especially those who the country targeted for skills. The analysis found that 1 in 5 immigrants moved onward over the period. Over a third of those who moved did so within the first five years. Let’s gloss over the fact that means a mass exodus might be coming soon, following the country’s rapid scale-up of immigration.
“Onward migration is a short- and long-term phenomenon. Immigrants are most likely to leave Canada three to seven years after arrival and, cumulatively…,” explains the ICC.
They further note, “We find that economic immigrants— those hand-selected for their unique ability to support Canada’s growth and development—are most likely to leave.”
Canada’s High-Skill Immigrants Are Most Likely To Leave
Highly skilled labor is targeted by virtually every country, so it’s no surprise that’s who is leaving Canada. About 48.1% of those who left arrived under an economic migration program, such as skilled trade programs, provincial nominees, or entrepreneur visas. It’s followed by those who arrived on family sponsorship (33.6%), and refugees (8.6%). All other programs combined made up just 9.7% of those who engaged onward migration.
Canada Is Squandering Big Bucks To Train Labor That Moves Abroad
Canada spends significant capital attracting immigrants, and facilitating integration. That cost is compounded through upskilling and training programs, with Canadian work experience being a valued asset in the global marketplace. When the country fails to retain this talent, it takes that investment with them.
“Investments in settlement and integration programs are lost. Depending on the age and stage at which immigrants leave, they also take their newly acquired experience and skills with them,” says the ICC.
Canada thought it could poach other countries’ investment in raising young adults. It turns out those countries are poaching Canada’s significant investment in training skilled labor. Whoops.
This analysis helps build a better understanding of our previous analysis, which found Canada overestimates its immigrant retention. We found a sharp drop off in the volume of immigrants the country can track through tax filings and social benefits. They may still be counted as residents, since a person needs to declare and pay an exit tax before Canada acknowledges they left the country. This point may help to further explain why rental vacancies in cities like Toronto are on the rise, despite the near-record population inflows.
Canada has long been able to attract immigrants as a place that provides a firm foundation for settling down. It’s begun coasting on that reputation, with the predatory belief that people will simply be happy to live in Canada. That may be true in some cases, but as the rest of the world becomes more developed, they compete for the highest skilled labor. It’s unclear if Canada’s policymakers even know they’re in a competition.
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