Canada is bracing for a mass exodus of residents and some aren’t too keen on the plan. A few weeks ago, the Government of Canada (GoC) announced it would taper its population, primarily by reducing permanent resident visas. It’s a big problem for the 1.2 million temporary resident visas that expire next year—leading to a surge in refugee claims by residents. Despite some resistance to the plan, the country is still set to see hundreds of thousands of people leave.
Canada Is Cutting 900k Temporary Residents, Still Double 2021
The GoC made another one of its infamous negotiations with temporary residents. They announced a pullback after increasing the temporary resident population 150% since 2021 to 2.96 million people. The country will cut 891k temporary visas, distributed in roughly even amounts over the next two years. That would leave just over 2 million temporary residents by the end of 2026, conveniently double the amount in 2021.
Canada is notorious for this kind of public negotiation, adopting the extreme of a policy and then cutting it to seem rational. Selling the public on doubling the temporary resident population is tough, but increasing it by 150% and then cutting a third seems like the execution of the opposite policy, no? As genius as this method is when it comes to dealing with the public, it also means a lot of people will be used as pawns. More precisely, there will be about 1.2 million of them next year—the number of visas set to expire.
Canada Expects 1.2 Million Temporary Residents To Leave Next Year
Canada is set to see 1.2 million temporary residents leave next year, but ultimately it depends on the churn. That is, the net flow of residents will greatly impact how many will need to go.
Canada plans to set aside about 40% of its permanent resident spots for temporary residents. That works out to 158k visas next year, meaning almost a sixth might find a permanent spot. Depending on the number of new arrivals, some may also obtain a new visa or other type of permit. The remainder are expected to leave before their visa is up and/or they’ll inevitably be removed.
Canada Sees A Sudden Surge of Residents Claiming To Be Refugees
One expected route people appear to be making is asylum claims, a.k.a. refugee claims. Canada saw 133k refugee claims made as of September year to date (YTD), up 38% from last year. More so, 63.9% of those claims were filed at inland offices, meaning those making a claim were already in the country. Inland filings hover around 50% of total annual claims in previous years, so these filings are a large part of the soaring claims.
One segment of temporary residents, international students, saw a big jump recently. According to an analysis in the Globe, about 13.7k of this year’s refugee claims YTD were people on study permits. At 4.5x the average volume seen in prior years, this volume is unheard of in Canada.
Students make valid refugee claims, but the timing is curious, according to the GoC. “It is quite obvious someone that’s here, that’s been here a year or even more, claiming asylum where no conditions have changed in their home country – it doesn’t smell good, it doesn’t look good,” immigration minister MP Marc Miller told the Globe.
That’s a tough claim to prove, likely only buying the filer a little more time and skepticism about their residency. However, this is still a small share of people relative to the number of people required to leave.
English (US) · 