Among voters who cast their ballots by Nov. 1, 38% said that the issue of housing affordability impacted their choice in the presidential contest, according to new survey data released this week by Redfin.
The survey was conducted by Ipsos within an extremely narrow time frame of 24 hours on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. The respondent pool was a nationally representative sample of 1,002 U.S. adults ages 18 and older. Both major party candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, have discussed their housing plans with varying levels of detail during the election cycle. But the survey results suggest that at least on the core issue of affordability, one candidate has the edge.
“Kamala Harris voters were much more likely than Donald Trump voters to say housing affordability factored into their decision: 43% of respondents who already voted for Harris say affordability impacted their pick, compared to 29% of respondents who already voted for Trump,” according to Redfin.
Generally, people who have already voted — regardless of their choice of candidate — “were less likely to factor housing affordability into their presidential decision than most other issues we asked about,” the survey explained. “Eleven of the 14 issues listed in the survey were more likely than housing affordability to impact votes.”
Voter perceptions of how mortgage rates would be impacted by the election were also tabulated. Roughly one-third of respondents believe that rates will fall under a Trump presidency, compared to about one-quarter of those who think the same under a Harris administration. A larger share of respondents also believe rates will rise under Harris (32%) versus Trump (28%).
The campaigns’ general focus on other, more widely discussed national issues like the economy or reproductive rights seemed to hold more sway over voters, the survey results noted.
The leading concerns for early voters were the economy (63%), inflation (59%) and protections for democracy (56%).
Other leading issues included immigration (55%), health care (52%), crime and safety (47%), abortion access (45%), U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts (41%) freedom of speech (41%), gun violence (40%) and the standing of the U.S. in the global community (38%).
Issues suggested to have less of an impact on candidate choice than housing affordability include climate change (36%) and gender-affirming care access (19%).
Still, the noise surrounding a national election is often distracting, and housing affordability could play a larger role in local elections, according to the survey results.
“Two in five (40%) U.S. residents who have already voted say housing affordability factored into their pick for local races,” Redfin explained. “Crime and safety was the most important consideration, with 50% of early voters saying it impacted their decision on who to vote for. It’s followed by the economy (46%) and inflation (41%), then housing affordability.”
Issues regarding housing affordability and facilitating new construction are largely made at the local level. These include policies that impact rental costs and zoning requirements that dictate where and when certain types of homes can be built.
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